I'm still confused over whether Bayesian prediction takes into account patients not yet enrolled, or whether it's only for patients who have started treatment but not yet reached 30 days.
If it's the former, how is gathering more data going to help if the average treatment effect at 45% is unchanged from the average treatment effect at 30%? The prediction in both interim analyses would be for all 300 patients.
If it's the latter, then yes, the number of patients taken into account increases at each interim analysis.
I'm still confused over whether Bayesian prediction takes...
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