Overwhelming efficacy - the stats required, page-412

(Sorry, my teacher mind kicked in here to help us condense the hypotheses so far! )
Therefore, if we interpolate the information from the announcement that we were not stopped for futility, we can reasonably assume, using @kervio and @omnisearch 's models, that...

1) On @omnisearch's models, given a 30% treated mortality, we can safely estimate a range of 83-88 people who have demonstrated an improvement of statistical significance.

2) On @kervio's models, given a 30% treated mortality, I agree with @IronMike94 that its more reasonable to believe that the 'uninformed' prior was used. My reasoning is that these results were going off a lot of the prior information known about C-19 ARDS' inflammatory mechanism of action (M1 macrophage activation, elevated interleukin markers) is very very similar to the MOA in GVHD which provided the 'compelling' evidence for using Rem-L to treat this indication as the results are very clear in how it addresses the inflammation pathways.

Hence, it would not be a 'skeptical' prior, but an 'uninformed' one.

Using the data from the Mt Sinai trial (and the info from the announcement dated 23/04/20), the key results were:
1) 83% (10 out of 12) in ventilator-dependant C-19 patients who were classified as moderate/severe

2) 75% (9 out of 12) have come off ventilator support within a median time of 10 days

Conservatively, we can then reasonably assume that the estimated survival rate is at least 70% if the patients in the cohort were moderate/severe in terms of rating on the Berlin Criteria.

Therefore, if we are looking at a survival rate of close to 70%, I can see why we were not halted at 30% for futility, and to add, I believe that there is a very high probability of the trial being stopped due to 'overwhelming efficacy' at the 45% mark, should the survival rate hold true.

O/T: I've absolutely loved the 'productive struggle' (hehe @Wilba32 were you a teacher in a previous life? ) in looking at both models and making some sense of it.

Would love to hear all your thoughts?