@kervo's bet is only overwhelming efficacy, whether the trial is successful or not is irrelevant in this bet. Of course if the trial is stopped at 60% for overwhelming efficacy then it is a success (Kervo won $300 and lost $700) but if not then he would have won the $700 (and lost $300) regardless if the trial is successful or not at the end.
Overwhelming efficacy - the stats required, page-486
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