Overwhelming efficacy - the stats required, page-493

Unless they have reason to believe that recruitment rates will increase from what we have seen so far, then I don't take them on their word for full recruitment by December. Just using a back of the envelope calculation from the 30% to the 45% would put the 100% readout well into the new year (there was a 2 month gap between the 30% readout and the estimated time for the 45% readout, which give no chance of an 100% readout in January if that rate persists. The 50% enrolled announcement also backup up this pessimistic timing of readouts, as it took from May to October to get to 50%, why would the second 50% be enrolled in 2 months, if the first 50% took 5 months?

Just be careful trusting guideline dates for readouts, they've been optimistic the whole way through:
http://investorsmedia.mesoblast.com/static-files/eddc4959-b33b-4065-8881-2619da866ed2
(this is the first guidance which had enrollment finishing about now).

I think Mesoblast has done a lot right positioning themselves to benefit from covid, targeting CHF and LBP for their headline phase 3 trials, their trial designs look really robust, they did a smart CR, they did really well at the ODAC hearing, and were well prepared, everything has been quite well managed, but their one weakness in management seems to be a bit too much optimism, so with my money I build in a lot of contingency.

All this talk is moot of course if they get overwhelming efficacy at the 45 or 60% readouts, but if not then I think we do slip a little... the signs are there.