Overwhelming efficacy - the stats required, page-496

I'm not saying that improved SOC takes the control group mortality down to 60%, I'm saying that more and more white papers and statistical readouts are emerging showing lower death rates, for our cohort it could be down to 60% but it could easily be even lower:
https://www.practiceupdate.com/content/covid-19-mortality-rate-for-intubated-adults-lower-than-previously-reported/102029
https://rebelem.com/covid-19-imv-and-mortality-at-emory/#:~:text=Background%3A%20One%20of%20the%20hot,ranging%20from%2050%20to%2090%25.

There are other papers that still have it over 50%, so it's an area of uncertainty:
https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-03240-7/tables/2

Either way, even at the 60% readout, early efficacy depends on the Bayesian analysis criteria more than anything else (did they use a skeptical prior? or a neutral prior?). The pink column highlights show what the literature suggests may be the reasonable control group mortality rates.

60% Readout

			35%	40%	50%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%	85%
		15% skeptical	0.373	0.511	0.742	0.895	0.942	0.973	0.990	0.997	0.999
		15% uninformed	0.932	0.985	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999
		20% skeptical	0.188	0.303	0.545	0.757	0.841	0.907	0.953	0.981	0.994
		20% uninformed	0.708	0.890	0.992	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999	0.999

Table shows: 15% vs 20% treated group mortality, skeptical vs neutral prior at different control group mortality rates

you're right that we don't know if improved SOC will help the treated group or not, but the scope by which it can help the treated group is much lower than for the untreated group. It's much easier to have a big effect on saving lives in a group with 80-85% mortality than in a group with only 15% mortality... law of diminishing returns and all that...

@LearningEachDay - Cases are up, but there's not yet the same increase in hospitalisations and deaths. We see some smaller changes to those, so it's a question of if there is a lag there, or if the improved SOC cascades down the line a little:
https://covidtracking.com/data
I hope I am wrong, and you are right... but I don't see a lot of evidence yet to support the enrollment concluding by year's end.