MESOBLAST LIMITED (ASX:MSB) - Overwhelming efficacy - the stats required, 48373221, page-498 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by kervio: ↑

I'm not saying that improved SOC takes the control group mortality down to 60%, I'm saying that more and more white papers and statistical readouts are emerging showing lower death rates, for our cohort it could be down to 60% but it could easily be even lower:
https://www.practiceupdate.com/content/covid-19-mortality-rate-for-intubated-adults-lower-than-previously-reported/102029
https://rebelem.com/covid-19-imv-and-mortality-at-emory/#:~:text=Background%3A%20One%20of%20the%20hot,ranging%20from%2050%20to%2090%25.

There are other papers that still have it over 50%, so it's an area of uncertainty:
https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-03240-7/tables/2

Either way, even at the 60% readout, early efficacy depends on the Bayesian analysis criteria more than anything else (did they use a skeptical prior? or a neutral prior?). The pink column highlights show what the literature suggests may be the reasonable control group mortality rates.

60% Readout

35% 40% 50% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%

15% skeptical 0.373 0.511 0.742 0.895 0.942 0.973 0.990 0.997 0.999

15% uninformed 0.932 0.985 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999

20% skeptical 0.188 0.303 0.545 0.757 0.841 0.907 0.953 0.981 0.994

20% uninformed 0.708 0.890 0.992 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999
Table shows: 15% vs 20% treated group mortality, skeptical vs neutral prior at different control group mortality rates
you're right that we don't know if improved SOC will help the treated group or not, but the scope by which it can help the treated group is much lower than for the untreated group. It's much easier to have a big effect on saving lives in a group with 80-85% mortality than in a group with only 15% mortality... law of diminishing returns and all that...

@LearningEachDay - Cases are up, but there's not yet the same increase in hospitalisations and deaths. We see some smaller changes to those, so it's a question of if there is a lag there, or if the improved SOC cascades down the line a little:
https://covidtracking.com/data
I hope I am wrong, and you are right... but I don't see a lot of evidence yet to support the enrollment concluding by year's end.
Expand
Having gotten only about 2 hours sleep, having a little trouble absorbing the data at the link you provided. But I did find this:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Severe Disease: Hospitalizations and Deaths

Since the week ending September 26 (MMWR week 39), overall weekly hospitalization rates have increased, driven primarily by an increase in rates among adults aged 50 years and older. Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 (PIC) for week 42 was 7.6% and, while declining, remains above the epidemic threshold. Hospitalization rates and PIC mortality for the most recent weeks are anticipated to increase as additional data are reported.

Certainly seems consistent with some of the news headlines I have seen about increasing covid hospitalizations.

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