When I run the model with a 43% improvement percentage the chance of getting overwhelming efficacy is very low even with a neutral prior. It's a tough mark to hit.
Mesoblast would have known this would have been a tough mark to hit.
It seems posters assume that they were thick in allowing the trial to go ahead.
Quite the opposite in my opinion. They would have run every mathematical scenario under the sun.
$50,000,000 of expenditure on respiratory trial results paid for by a third party. Conducted in under 12 months, saving years off commencing research from scratch.
There's some brilliance for you.
Bravo to the team.
Reg
The bottom line is that the drug did work
Overwhelming efficacy - the stats required, page-576
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