oz hasn't a clue, page-6

Interesting post by Zoom Bee on Yahoo.

" Be extra careful out there this weekend 3-Sep-10 06:43 pm
Be extra careful out there this weekend

You are now a more valuable asset to your family.

Samson Oil and Gas Limited AMEX: SSN
The Net Asset Value (all values in 000's, except for shares)
Most Likely Case Per‐Share (Basic)
Net PV‐10 Value:
Proved Reserves (6/30/2009) $29.0 -- per share $0.35
Niobrara ORRI $56.3 per share $0.68
Niobrara drilling program $429 -- per share $5.16.
Bakken drilling program $17.3 -- per share $0.21
Oil and gas asset value $531.9 -- per share $6.40
Less debt ‐$11.4 -- per share -$0.14
Working capital (deficit):
Cash (pro forma) $84.9 -- per share $1.02

Other current assets (12/31/09) $1.2 -- per share $0.01

Other current liabilities (12/31/09) ‐$1.9 -- per share‐$0.02

Other assets $0.0

Net Asset Value $604.6 -- per share $7.27

Shares outstanding (Basic ADSs) ‐ MM 83.2

NAV per Share (Basic ADS) $7.27

Shares outstanding (Diluted ADSs) ‐ MM 99.8

NAV per Share (Diluted ADS)* $6.10

These numbers were presented at the EnerCom, Inc. Oil & Gas Conference 15 by Terry Barr.
They represent the current working and most prolific Oil fields owned and operated by Samson.

Samson owns and operates in other fields but these may be sold in time over the next 10 years.

The $7.27 per share value it represents 10 years of value. So a shareholder can reasonably be assured that $0.727 per share each year for ten years (spreading equally). These oil field are operating and on September 7th when Samson closes the Land Deal all debt will be paid (11.386M) the remaining monies and use are not factored. Any use of that money for assets and land acquisition will only add to this value.

The share value is the worth and the Most Likely estimate prepared by the company.
Now as a shareholder you know normal operations for a steady profitable company comes a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. The P/E ratio is based upon how a shareholder values the conduct and business events of a Company.

Many of you folks are aware of other Oil companies and Im providing todays closing P/E for the profitable companies of favor (except KOG as thats unrealistic at 268). Here they are Chesapeake CHK 21.53, EOG 39.34 and BEXP 51.38 if you average those its 37.42 for performing on-shore Oil companies.

Calculating a share of Basic ADS using a reasonable P/E ratio of 30 is $0.727 * 30 or $21.81

Calculating a share of diluted ADS using a reasonable P/E ratio of 30 is $0.727 * 30 or $18.30

This value is for the next 10 years with normal operations.

These numbers are the most current and directly from the company presentation at Enercon conference presented by Terry Barr (Page 15 Figure 9).

http://www.samsonoilandgas.com/IRM/conte...

So on Tuesday September7th, 2010 when Samson Oil and Gas Limited AMEX: SSN
Closes the Land Deal the normal operations already in place bring this shareholder price to the market.


Sentiment : Strong Buy "