Nursery or jdvictoria,Correct me where I have it wrong, pls1....

Nursery or jdvictoria,

Correct me where I have it wrong, pls

1. LYC have had funding issues during the GFC.
2. CNMC will be issued with shares that mean CMNC have 51% of LYC. CNMC provide the cash for the shares for mine and processing plant development.
3. CNMC have not yet got FIRB approval and the time frame for that approval process is fast drawing to a close. (early Sept - little more than a week)
4. LYC currently has sufficient cash till mid Oct 09, i.e 1 and 1/2 months away.
5. LYC is attempting to get some more funding but nothing is secured yet.

There would appear to be multiple options that could happen here.
a) FIRB give approval and everything is fine.
b) FIRB do not give approval , but other sources of funding are obtained, everything is fine.
c) FIRB do not give approval and funding is not forthcoming, then either a capital raising or administration.
d) FIRB do not give approval and a white knight steps in and replaces CNMC to provide the funding.
e) FIRB do not give approval, sp plummets to it's lows in mid march of 12cps, and a t/over is then offered at 16cps (a 25% premium to the sp of 12cps. (a market cap of less than $100m)

There are probably other options as well.

If I was in OZL Business Development, my recommendation would be to wait. LYC have an agreement with CNMC. Until that agreement is annulled, OZL will find it hard to do anything. If the CNMC agreement is annulled, then that would be the time to step in and pick up a distressed asset, if it made good business sense to do it. I have not seen any cash flow or profit or eps projections or NPV's that say the company has a good business plan. If LYC have a pack with that info, tell me where it is and I can find it and have a read. (Commsec show eps of 3cps in 2011, so purchasing shares at 16cps is an 18% return - good value - at 58cps, the return is 5% - OZL can get that by leaving the money in the bank - risk free)

Would appreciate your comments and feedback.

HT1