ozl- sfr, reading between the lines

Oz would still be extremely focused on taking over sfr in spite of the Carrapateena purchase imo, and I wouldn't be surprised if it moved on sfr as early as the next few months. Oxiana's method in aquiring Prom Hill from Minotaur in 2004, and the forthcoming 1 for 10 share consolidation, point to some vital clues.

The takeover of Sandfire is I believe, the reason OZ have proposed the forthcoming 1 for 10 share consolidation and it could be the reason why it wasn't a 1 for 5.

Once this is approved at the upcoming May 18 AGM, Oz could make it's move on SFR soon after.
Oz Minerals will then be a company with lots of cash in the bank and lots of available shares to issue (for purchases)if it wishes.

It can then take on Sandfire in a deal similar to Oxiana's takeover of Minotaur and hence aquired Prom Hill.

An all scrip offer by Oz, with no cash involved!!

It could be the Sandfire Takeover, or Merger, or Scheme of Arrangement, call it anything you like.

OZ would have approx 324m shares on issue after the consolidation, it could offer new ozl scrip valued at the time, at maybe $18/share? Possibly around 50-60m shares, would hardly make a dent to the new consolidated Oz. If more shares are required to get it over the line, easily done.

So there you have the $billion or so, required and payable to sfr in ozl scrip, that Oz needs to buy out the remaining sfr shares it doesn't own, and the bonus being, OZ gets to keep its cash to develop DeGrusa..

SFR shareholders/management may not go for it? they want the cash! They probably won't have a choice.
Oz just needs to convince Posco currently 16% of sfr, and Institutions 20.5% of sfr, and with Oz's current holding of 18.9% will give Oz at least 55% of SFR, the rest will not have much choice but to follow.

Oz could even sweeten the deal for sfr holders by only buying DeGrusa and still leave SFR intact. SFR could be spun off and still be an exploration company with some minor exploration leases, around DeGrusa perhaps?) similar to Minotaur today, as was done in the Oxiana- Minotaur 'scheme of arrangement'in 2004.

History shows us Minotaur shareholders received their equivalent number of shares in the 'new' Minotaur spinoff exploration company PLUS a multiple of new oxr shares and were very happy to take them.

The above scenario is a strong posibility imo, one the SFR board would find difficult to defend.

Why else would Oz choose to consolidate its shares now?

A bit of history to research:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20041109/pdf/3nlsd09p4gr3n.pdf

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20041109/pdf/3nlrxf8bxjc9v.pdf

(All the above, is only my opinion of course)
Cheers,
nil.