p.s. re p.s., page-7

Katana; I agree. 60-80c trading range IMO as previously stated on hc. I also agree with your other points.

Whynot; BHP is taking a long view IMO. SEA is an excellent proposition as a long IMO, so you guys are on the same wavelength.

MM; yes, I would agree that the price is lower than fair value at the moment. This is a combination of bot activity, lack of buyer numbers (disregarding bots), delays, risk appetite, sector specific factors and the wider market (IMO). My analysis is that SEA is a good/safe stock to hold as a long (based on current seemingly undervalued status and further post-52 week high derisking), and will rise again (pump or no pump) once markets are truly convinced that global debt issues are resolvable (when 3 quarters of solid data emerge at a guess, so some time yet). I've had my sentiment as a hold all the way down to 39c, and retained it as a hold on the way back up to 55c, as models showed another buying opportunity ca 40c (which now eventuated). Part of the reason for holding was that the current ca 40c could go lower if EU situation takes a dramatic turn for the worse. This would be a major buying opportunity for me, otherwise I am content to miss out and hold the number that I do for the way back up.

IMO, sector analysis and keeping a close eye on some of our peers (by way of gleaning a leading indicator to SEA sp movement) is the ay to go at the moment. Of course, this would need to factor in any negative changes in company fundamentals to be accurate, otherwise, in my experience this tends to work for SEA. Easily verifiable by carrying out this basic analysis on the post GFC-low period. Some of our peers shifted a polynomial order whilst SEA was still languishing on my model. As such, bought in big sub-10c. A similar method could work again, providing you wait for the true low again. The risk is picking that low correctly, and it is somewhat a guess. My rationale was to look at cash backing of sector peers and several blue chip stocks, and then make a judgement call to go in on the value investing model once several peers and quasi-paired stocks started a technical breakout before SEA did.

Had a bit of time to post today, so hopefully some of this general stuff makes sense. Good luck with SEA.