" .......... Thanks @kpax and @Captain Goodvybes for your thoughts and just to add my thoughts on each scenario:......"
And so say all of us (sincerely) !
For those who have not seen or taken the time to watch the 25-30 minute interview with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla (recorded end last year ) can only suggest it may give credibility to the possible way forward and how the game is potentially changing. First part basically refs Covid and recounts reason for speed in developing vaccine was primarily due digital methods / computer adopted.
If you dont have the time skip and pick it up from the 19.37 time line. Most salient points for me given from someone pretty high up the food chain - ( paraphrased ) - 1. Catch cry for Pfizer - create breakthrough that change peoples lives 2. Rapid move towards digitalization in early stage development (big dollars required) 3. Picking winners among small developers to hard and basically takes to long - days for this numbered. Prefers to be part of a eco system so they can partner earlier.
As mentioned earlier looking back at the history of PAA personally have to conclude the strategy was to develop the identified opportunity of a treatment for cancer - none of the other opportunities had been considered - with the established relationship of a big pharma who covered both animal and human sectors, develop up the animal product, prove the human side and flip the lot to big brother ASAP.
As with most plans things changed and I am still to be convinced the BoD have actually kept abreast of the extent to which that is the case - at least until recently where they certainly appear to have regrouped.
If you look around the industry and see where others in the bio space are and frankly how few have signed solid deals with BP, I can only suggest we have a way to go before the doors of the bigger boys will generally be open. Assuming the science continues to be positive then the most significant aspect of value has to reside in the protection of the IP. My understanding is there are a number of patents registered but not so sure they are spread across all potential markets BP would want (happy to be corrected). More protection comes at a (significant) cost so I would see this as a great argument to look to have a "friendly" partner up at the earliest opportunity. OR we can look forward to a couple of CR's - but I think this is possibly a lesser preference for the Board. OR, is it possible it will be flipped for a low price with a bit spun off into a research lab called Epichem !
If one takes the view expressed by Pfizers CEO as generally the trend of the BP names then guess pragmatically it would make most sense to look to get a big brother on side ASAP - whatever the cost - as cannot see how the product could viably be sold off piecemeal (would think IP control would be a nightmare). Could it be a wild card solution to basically merge / partner with a larger synergistic early stage player possibly even not yet listed. Yes PAA has a number of market segments to target but my understanding it is still a narrow scientific platform in play (MPL). A fail in one makes it less appealing / believable. Economically makes sense. Plenty of other baby bios look to the insurance of bringing in other platforms/ products. Also a viable way to bring in good people as long as the culture aligns. Still all science fiction this stage though (sorry pun intended).
Personally believe this is the year that will make or break us all with this one. Mr Market has been and appears to continue to be quite harsh on anything less that very solid data based announcements. Intentions and statements of future events just dont cut it. Its all outcomes based. Think most of us will be aware of a (baby) bio that ran hard particularly over the past 12 months but has then halved in price awaiting solid data. Announcements regards additional patents and the like were quickly brushed aside. PAA BoD would be very much aware of this and will hopefully continue to massage the strategic plan to ensure positive outcomes for both the science and the future intrinsic value of the business.
All just the ramblings of some ol' codger - lets sit back, have a glass of water and wait in the shade for all to be revealed. Happy punting all
PAA Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)