paddington's bear, donkey and rabbit - tuesday, page-8

Goodness me Bigg Daddy, I feel nervous about posting after that intro!!

Martis's dead cat bounce looks very much a live one again today - and not your ordinary little moggie either - something much bigger and stronger - more like a blessed leopard.

I have spent a lot of time over recent months trying to measure sentiment. I have included over the past few weeks, figures that show how much money had been committed to the market. The history for that goes back six years and last week's figure was the lowest during that period. I find that very exciting as it indicates there is a lot of money on the sidelines.

I have also tried to measure sentiment on the XJO thread but gave up as it was difficult to sometimes gauge whether people were bearish or bullish.

But another site I have found gives blogger sentiment. It is a fairly small sample although they have increased it over the past few months. They give bullish, bearish and undecided. The chart isn't of a great deal of value without the group that are on the sidelines so I decided to call half of them bullish and half bearish. I know that would not pass a mathematicians test of veracity but it works and I have ended up with a great chart. Last week it was running off the bottom of the page but this week they have jumped sides to a large degree with the bullish group going from 14.81% to 55.5%.

While I admit that sentiment of bloggers isn't as good a measure as to exactly how much money is on the sidelines, it is the first hint of change of sentiment I have had from these figures.

Just makes me a bit more cautious short term but I still think we have seen the low for this cycle.

Here is the web site I am referring to:

http://tickersense.typepad.com/