There's assumptions in my figures that PCK's enterprise product continues to grow at the rate it has, DTC product and children's app are rolled out and I have used conservative numbers.
The enterprise product has already kicked off and they're suggesting 100k beds by October, I just ran with a growth rate of 100k beds per year for enterprise. I figure that's a reasonably safe figure to work with moving forward, as the first 100k will essentially validate the usefulness of PCK and make it easier marketing it to the rest of the world, the long term growth rate is ultimately an unknown, though, especially how it goes globally. There's no shortage of a target market though and we've already kicked off in UK and NZ.
DTC, a total punt with the figures I put there, was running ~50k subscriptions per year growth rate and 430k by 2029 , if there's any success here, the figures I have used are extremely conservative given the size of the target markets and buying at this price looking back 10 years will be the stuff dreams are made of. I am optimistic here, I think carers would use this, particularly if the government get on board in any way and subsidise the cost. I also don't see a better alternative for DTC than this, you're not going to have
@AlCp's biomarker being jammed into dementia patients arms by Joe Blow carers.
Children's app, the figures I used here were very small compared to the target market size, I think to justify the price today with a 15% growth rate from here to 2029 we would only need 164,000 subscriptions by 2029, not even half a % of the target market. Capture 5% of this market by 2029, - 20,000,000 subscriptions and forward earnings at a 15% return compounded yearly and PCK is worth $4.52 today, ~$31 in 2029 - LOL. Bit rampy, but that's not an impossibility IMO.
Market size pic not working, see next post.
I think this rollout plan supports my thoughts, it's feasible to expect the growth rates I have used. The company presentation is really good.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-company-presentation.5102068/
I suppose the questions we should be asking is, what could go wrong? It's still very early days, but these guys have a great road map.
Cheers.
