PainChek General Discussion, page-17172

You'd have to think that PainChek at about these prices is good value. It dropped in to the sixes in March at the bottom of the CoVid crash and we're six months on from there. Maybe it will get there again, but I really don't think so, 8c possibly, 7c would be a steal.

For those holding I imagine most are probably in the red now, and anyone in the green have watched their gains go from up 1000% back to double digits. But the questions now are how will the company go compared to others in the market? Are you prepared to bail at the low point?

The next six months should be good for PainChek. FDA will happen. PainFaces will get clinical validation. DTC will be trialed successfully. Philips will sign a formal agreement. Another 30-50k beds will be activated and I estimate the same will be contracted.

In another thread people are predicting share prices in the $1+ range by June next year. No way. No how. PainChek has lost its darling status, never be returned. The promise and hype from 2018 is gone, replaced by the cold reality that PainChek is useful not a game changer and aged care have very limited funds and roll out is way harder than you'd think. International expansion has provided more or less nothing in the last year, platitudes at best from NZ, SG and the UK. We will get some traction in the next six months to a year but not heaps. I predict less than 50k beds from internationals in the next year.

For those expecting tens of millions from Philips, nuh-uh. The first agreements will be small and targeted, maybe not even material in terms of revenues. But probably around $1-2m on an annual basis, just to start with.

In terms of revenue generation by June next year I don't expect us to be much more than $6-7m, including the government grant. This would price us reasonably around 10c (~$100m).

But those things I listed earlier once achieved give rise to plenty of speculation on future business and that is what will drive the price. 30c could be achievable by June next year.

From 9c to 30c would be a pretty cracking return in nine months I think. Particularly given there is so little risk involved, I just can't see this being 5c in June next year. So much upside at this price, so little downside.