Below is a simple revenue model based on fully implemented beds...

Below is a simple revenue model based on fully implemented beds for Painchek.
The purpose is for the model to be simple and not getting bog down in the weeds as in reality it is more complex than that.

My thesis that I have hammered for quite sometime is for painchek to increase price per bed by 20%. The current monthly rev per bed is $4.38 in UK and $3.84 in AU based on fully implementing 95,003 licences. The current implementation in UK is half which is ok as when you think about it, there would be time taken to fully implement the beds.

To prevent this post reading out like an essay, I will cut to the chase...

Increasing price per bed by 20% without losing any contract licences result in revenue increase of $5.53 - $4.61 = $0.92M
I don't know about you, but that can delay a capital raise if anything.

Assuming the market is fully penetrated you would get a revenue uplift of additional $7.10M with the new pricing.
I have gone with a realistic 50% penetration but even still $21.29M ARR is no laughing matter.

Especially when the business is currently capital light with 80%+ Gross Margin. If we are being operating expense being flat (which I totally disagree with but for simplicity sake we assume that's true... Then we could see EBIT margins of 40%+)

Add a multiple or whatever valuation metric your heart is content with and it isn't hard to fathom a $200M+ Market cap business (assuming the realistic scenario of 50% market pen in AU/UK markets)

3 Wildcards not considered in the valuation are:
- US Market entry and the time it takes for meaningful bed growth (everyone should keep a close eye on the progress)
- Canada & Europe growth (seems irrelevant but i feel its underated)
- Infant app adoption (dunno how this would play out)

What are everyone else's thesis for the investment?