AVM 0.00% 2.6¢ advance metals limited

Just doing some back of the envelope figures on the Elko Coal...

  1. gmc
    453 Posts.
    Just doing some back of the envelope figures on the Elko Coal asset potential. All very speculative and a few years away but if coaking coal remains at these prices all very possible.

    I will use 2 million tpa of coal production in the equations

    Will assume we have 200 million shares on issue and 1 billion $ debt from the cost of building the Elko mine.
    Will assume a $100 million pa interest cost on the debt.
    Will assume a $90 per tonne production cost as predicted in the FEC report.


    Coaking coal price Annual production Income Production cost Interest payment Profit / Loss

    US $100 2mill tonne $200 mill $180 mill $100 mill loss $80 mill
    150 '' $300 mill '' '' profit $20 mill
    200 '' $400 mill '' '' '' $120 mill
    250 '' $500 mill '' '' '' $220 mill
    300 '' $600 mill '' '' '' $320 mill
    350 '' $700 mill '' '' '' $420 mill

    So on a very conservative PE of 5 @ coal price of $150 per tonne you get Elko valued at $100 million which equates to around 50c per share.

    @ $200 a tonne you get the Coal asset valued @ $600 million which equates to about $3 per share.
    At the current Coal price of US $300 per tonne we have a valuation around $ 1.6 billion which equates to $8 per share.
    I know these figures seem crazy at the moment but Im just trying to point out the potential PAK has and thats not including Imagines potential which is impossible to put a price on.
    Happy to be shot down in flames.
    A lot needs to go our way but really if the coaking coal price can stay above $150 it seems like a no brainer.

    GLTA

    gmc
 
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