Paladin up on Livewire
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-2019-could-be-uranium-s-break-out-year
How to Gain Uranium Exposure
International investors may look to pure play exposure such as Yellow Cake (LON:YCA), or Cameco (TSE:CCO) for its diversified position across the supply chain, but in Australia the cleanest way to play uranium is through Paladin Energy (ASX
DN).
Paladin’s Tier 1 Langer Heinrich mine is the lowest cost open pit mine globally. According to UxC, the leading nuclear industry market research company, Paladin was in the first tier of the production cost curve, with all in cost of production at Langer Heinrich of US$28/lb. Paladin is well funded to a restart decision, with the company forecasting to hold around US$40m in cash by the end of the current quarter. If the uranium price reaches a sufficient level to incentivise a mine restart, the mine could be up and running in around 12 months and potentially be one of the first restarted mines back into production.
The leverage in Paladin is huge – at a US$40/lb uranium price we estimate their 75% share of the Langer Heinrich mine will produce around $40m of cashflow, going to $130m at US$60/lb and $230m at US$80/lb. These numbers compare favourably to Paladin’s current market cap of $315m and demonstrate the value proposition on offer. At higher uranium prices the market will also likely start to ascribe some value to Paladin’s other assets – the Kayelekera mine and their 300mlb exploration portfolio. At this stage Paladin remains a risky proposition (like most other uranium stocks), however if the uranium story plays out like we believe it should, then investors will be rewarded for their patience.
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