The big surge in the last few weeks was obviously due to the Russian sanctions. As was later found out, Palladium was not sanctioned and then the announcement by Nornickel that there would not be any disruptions to their shipments ts made the price come back. Nornickel has to use different air routes to get their product to the customer.
Now it is important to note that the biggest consumers of Palladium which is tied to the manufacture of petrol ice's is China followed by the USA and Europe.
It is very possible that disruptions to supply could still occur sometime in the future. There are many possibilities that could trigger this. Sanctions could be placed on Palladium from Russia but that looks unlikely at this stage as Palladium is a sought after product for the auto manufacturing industry. Another possibility is that China becomes the next country to be sanctioned and something comes from the left field which causes disruptions to supply.
On the flip side the current lockdown in China could cause disruptions in chip manufacture which in turn may reduce their auto manufacturing output.
I think the price will fluctuate between $2200 to $2500 unless disruptions in supply or demand kick in.
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