In reply to Yummy and 392649,,,
You both raise an interesting point. I must be going cross-eyed with my decimals, or suffering a grey moment, because my rough-as-guts estimates do actually keep landing me with a whopping MC that's far above 500mill (and that's just for Aurora Tank)
I've even tried to minimise everything by using the most conservative rounding down of everything at each stage...
So if anyone can tell me which step I'm overlooking, I'd greatly appreciate it.
eg... by my rough scribblings:
From the map & other reports, Aurora Tank looks to be:
500ish m long
x 300ish m wide
x 60-ish meters deepbut
divide by 2 or whatever else you think is fair to be super-conservative re the odd shape of the pit, slope of walls etc, which may or may not need to go as deep as 200m in at least one spot. Way back in the stone age, (at highschool, LOL) I used to be a whiz at calculating volumes of bizarre shapes, but I'm too old to care about fractions any more, so I just round down by a whack-load extra, so that's how I get only:
= 9,000,000m3, minimumx 1.2 tonnes of "paydirt" per m
3 (although I have soil on my farm which looks similar and can weight up to 1.7 tonnes per cubic meter, but I stayed conservative with 1.2)
x the total average gold grade...
hmmm... pure guess work at this stage, obviously...
we know there were so many hits between 1 and 5g/t that 5g/t was deemed to be the cut-off grade during an earlier stage.
& we know there are plenty of hotspots between 20 and 220, with an upper hot-spot average of 165.
But even if we only take the data set from the old map above + the 5 highest grades from the most recent results:
7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 27, 27, 27, 27, 27, 7.3, 7.3, 7.3, 7.3, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 39, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 25, 25, 25, 25, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 44, 29, 29, 29, 15, 15, 15, 15, 70, 70, 70, 70, 9, 9, 9, 9, 30, 8.9, 8.9, 8.9, 8.9, 24, 24, 24, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 24, 24, 24, 8.8, 8.5, 8.5, 8.5, 10, 10, 10, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 14, 14, 14, 14, 26, 26, 6.2, 6.2, 6.2, 18, 33, 67, 67, 20, 9.8, 10, 10, 10, 17, 39, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 19, 165, 165, 165, 165, 165... and yes, I know, I got lazy by the end of entering all those and ignored a few decimals there as well, LOL.
even so, the average grade of all that so far is 19.7g/t ... assuming the mineralisation is somewhat average at all, LOL...
BUT even that seemed too high...
So being super-conservative, ignoring all the
extra results between 1 and 5g/t from more recent results, and ignoring all the other high grades from the more recent batch too... and ignoring everything under 1g/t from all data sets... and also trying to allow for some areas which may have nothing at all...
I just rounded down a lot more and used only 1/10th of 165... then rounded down again from 16.5 to 16...
so
x16g/t as my rough-as-guts conservative grade...
x $57.75US per gram of gold at this morning's prices
= $8316Million US
= $11,322 Million AUD... BUT THEN... I think heap leach processes typically only recover 60 to 90% over time...
So even if we assume only the super-conservative guesstimate of
50% over an extended period of however long...
and assuming gold is still roughly the same price by then, obviously...
That still lands me at a jaw dropping, coffee spitting
$5,661Mill as the market cap...
Surely, I must have overlooked a big step..?
That's just for Aurora Tank.
I've never had a company strike a bonanza before(over 34g/t)...
I've gone close.
eg The best so far for me is Chalice, who just reported strikes in a new "Belt" sized area with hits over 32g/t... which is relevant, because they consider it to be so significant, that they are using this news to split off their gold tenements to be it's own Tier 1 company by Christmas.
(A Tier 1 is a project that's worth over 1 billion.)
And it was CHN's early gold hits at Pyramid Hill last year, and their earliest mentions of it as a potential Tier 1, which led me to find Marmota - where Dr Rose & team were already so much further ahead in both grades and steps towards commencement of processing.
So every way that I look at Marmota, it's a potential Tier 1 in the making.
And contrary to popular opinion, we don't need to be processing yet to achieve that.
eg Chalice achieved their first 3billion Market Cap last year (up from $65million), just by reporting the grades of nickel, copper, platinum, palladium, cobolt, chromium etc that they'd found at Julimar.
And like MEU, CHN is still at least 6 months from announcing a JORC.
Even so, I can't help the feeling that I've missed a step in my rough estimates.
Surely I can't be THIS lucky, two companies in a row, LOL.
(20min delay)
