NWE 0.00% 5.6¢ norwest energy nl

panic selling provides an opportunity

  1. 446 Posts.
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    Obviously punters are concerned that this weeks announcement wasn't as clear as they would like it, or unambiguously bullish, and so are selling.
    Having proved the Perth Basin shale concept, we are early into the next phase - the testing program.
    The first section, Kockatea, ws originally thought to just contain gas, but had oils shows. There was mixed messages on this section in the release - my take is that NWE hasn't given up on the oil (and why would you), and the array of technical data will now be analysed to try and locate the source. That will take time, so best to consider it on the backburner, and now a free but still a potentially very valuable option.
    The Carynginia has flowed 350,000 scf/d maximum rate in the early stages. As per their statement and the pretty picture of the gas flare, the gas is competing with the frac fluid, which NWE estimate still has a "significant % remaining in the formation". I assume they expect to retrieve further frac fluid, and I assume that the gas flow rate will increase as the gas has less fluid to compete with as they push to surface. So seems reasonable to expect this "strong early gas rate" to improve. Reckon NWE will need to update the market in the next week or so on this.
    Next zone to test is the IRCM, a massive 350m thick section, where expectations are understandably high, and then on to the HCSS.
    As flagged by NWE, this whole process could take up to four months. Cue nervy traders to exit poste haste, as they have subsequently done yesterday and into a soft market today.
    But for those that perhaps understand the process a little better, and feel inclined to take a medium term view, the promise of the Perth Basin is undiminished imo.
    This second phase, flow testing, is obviously critical to the third phase of development. But dare to dream if you will.
    The Carynginia shale has already got flow rates of 350,000scf/d in early stages, whilst still competing with the frac fluid. Not unreasonable to expect (much) higher, as i wrote above. Anyway, let's call it 500,000 scfd. Thats from a vertical well. Design a horizontal development well with numerous fracs and its not hard to come up with a scenario of ~ 5mmscf/d. From one section. Not bad at all.
    So, I certainly haven't given up on this play, in fact i think the data to date supports the positive theory.
    And as others give up, I am happy to keep buying at what i think are very cheap levels.
 
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