panic time, page-15

As I have been saying since I joined Hot Copper, often to screams of laughter {now on the other side of their collective faces} the market is no where near its low with more selling off and continued horrific economic news to come.

As I wrote last month, last week and yesterday, do not get sucked into this bear market as the worst is really yet to come.

IMO markets will not show any sustained improvement until a number of factors occur.

One such indicator will be when we read and / or hear that the US housing market has stabilized and indeed on the rise again.

That will be imo one indicator which will help to put the brakes on the bad sentiment.

Remember, this mess all began some 18 to 24 months ago now as a result of the US housing market. It was the first domino to fall and brought into popular speak the term "sub prime loan" which of course in reality means a loan which is given to those who can least afford to repay, hence the mess.

Of course there are other reasons however imo this situation began with the above and it will not even begin to have any chance of beginning its recovery until the US housing market turns around.

Until then, imo anyone entering the stock market now is playing with fire.

Trying to pick up days and down days on the market on an intra day basis is always a difficult task and in this environment economically, fraught with danger.

More announcements today domestically of sackings/retrenchments in the mining industry and store closures in the retail sector.

Banks, despite a so called ban on short selling are continuing to fall after shocking announcements from the banking industry in the UK and US. The full extent of the banks bad debts in these markets is still unknown and frankly, many of the banks in the US and UK and elsewhere for that matter have no idea of the full extent of their exposure to toxic debt.

The respective governments will continue to throw good money after bad in a desperate attempt at propping up their banks but it is, imo to little and to late.

I strongly believe that many banks are simply not been completely open in regard to their exposure to toxic debt.

These events will have an inevitable flow on effect to our banks and our stock market generally.

Commodities have further to fall with the resulting effect on miners’ imo.

I continue to warn people who, after reading some attempts here to convince the unsuspecting that the worst is behind us, that it is nowhere near behind us imo.

If you take 18 months as a beginning point for this catastrophe we are now experiencing, imo we are about half way to two thirds through.

However, the economy is nowhere near that level and imo we are about to enter, as a result of gross mismanagement, greed and ineptitude, the worst economic downturn in 70 years that will result in Australia entering, along with the rest of the world, a depression.

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THE ABOVE IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE AND NOT DESIGNED TO
BAIT, TROLL, FLAME, CREATE AN ARGUMENT OR OTHERWISE
CAUSE OFFENCE TO ANY PERSON WHO SO-EVER IS ENTITLED TO DISAGREE WITH MY OPINION AS STATED IN THE ABOVE TEXT