Between years 1991-2000 nickel stocks were above 30,000 tons on...

Between years 1991-2000 nickel stocks were above 30,000 tons on LME,
in those years the nickel price didn't go above $10,000 ton.

Between years 2000-2006 nickel stocks median was 15,000 tons and the nickel price median $11,000 ton.
You could say the equilibrium price for those years was about $11k .

In 2007 the nickel stocks fell to about $2500 tons, the nickel price hit $55k ton, as nickel stocks started to rise nickel fell to $17,000 ton in 2008/

In 2009 the nickel stocks continued to rise to 30,000 tons of stock and the nickel price dropped to $10,000 ton.

Around this time the USD fell which resulted in an increase in commodity prices. The global stimulus around the world resulted in market confidence. Nickel stocks continued to rise to 55,000 tons and the nickel price bounced back to $20,000 ton.




Given the above movement of nickel prices is effected by nickel stocks I am looking closely at the factors below.

1The main factors in assessing the companies future is the effect of fx on panoramics profits.

2 Will the falling nickel price reduce market consumption of substitutes and in turn bring down LME nickel stocks.

3 Is panoramic a truly low cost producer and do they have comparable production costs with the top 20 producers.

4 Has the production cost of the top 20 nickel producers risen higher than 5 usd pound.


Here is an interesting report by CREDIT SUISSE

https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&document_id=805344850&source_id=emcmt&serialid=fy+mi0memgkHitC/9RnPN3EVZskC86y378kAjKu3XjE=