Got some down time this morning, so happy to answer...
Yes good question... like with most things in this space, there is much variance, there are many specific examples that we can and cant draw from.
"Biotech firms are not your standard widget manufacturer that you learned to value in your MBA and/or CFA courses." 3 Every situation is indeed unique. All I can do is give you some examples and add my thoughts.
AVERAGES
Ok while the below pertains to buy outs (we want a distribution deal, not an outright buy out), it gives us a clue on when the most of the action occurs on average:
Lots of early action in Preclinical and around Phase 2...don't read into this too much though....(see below)THROW THE AVERAGES OUT
Why isn't a good idea for us and PAR to look at just averages....because I personally think
we are unique...Now I know a few of you are going to say that Mozz, that's a risky broad type sales type pitch. But I do think we have at least some individual and rare points, briefly:
- Only a HANDFUL of Aussie Biopharmas have made it to this stage and beyond
- How many Aussie, let me rephrase, how many Global Bio Pharmas have such a wide a broad application potential like our first repurposed drug that's SAFE and that has such a duration and coupled with pure efficacy at these levels AND with no real competition at all!
- There are no DMOADS out there....none.
Point's 2 and 3 put us in a gloriously unique position.....we would be CRAZY Bat-Sh*t MAD to make a deal too soon....WE do not want to go to auction and take the first bid....Speaking of Pool-lord with his post just above, let the bidders fight, and just wait till they see the pool (let's call it 008 data) in the backyard....they are going to up their bids and fight....we want them to fight for us...
Hey wait, that heated luxurious pool didnt even feature in the auction feature sheet? Bonus, I shall call it the magnificent 008 pool!DEAL WITHIN A DEAL?
Again, as we have multiple avenues here, so too is the potential application of a deal.
An example of complexities within just one pharma is the case of Crispr, listed in the US and a company with some interesting developments
3 which also attracted partners around the P2 stage:
I mean OA is the big draw card for us, yes...but also consider these options for us as a sampler:
A) DEAL with a local country, say Japan for instance
B) MPS Deal/tie up
C) Department of Defense deal involving CHIK-V
D) Smaller deals to partner up in further exploratory research, may not be lucrative in the early stages but could set us up with acceleration through collaboration with a bigger sister company/research group.
INCREASED PROBABILITY
Sure getting a P3 successfully opened is going to add dollops of credibility to our case. It will also add the value case. Especially as data gets back. At least in my opinion I like the fact that we didn't do a deal too early in the piece...sure maybe our share price would be well above $5 or even more if we did, but think of the inherent value NOW with a good amount of volume of water having flowed under the proverbial bridge. More data to come....more value to come in our future pipeline...
SUMMARY
So I think while it's always beaut to get a deal early and a lot of companies do strike deals earlier in the piece, a P3 start will add value and in our case if we hold off just a bit more, I think we might even add to already compelling story....
A guess? I'd say that chances vastly approve once our 002 really takes off and 008 data is released, so let's put it at mid next year? The iron gets hotter in and around then and after that ...don't strike too early PAR, we got too much raw potential...
DISCLAIMERS
Spec views here, only my thoughts.
REFERENCES
1)
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/data-insights/ma/following-ma-money-phase-and-therapy-area2)
https://blog.dealforma.com/biotech-and-pharma-mergers-and-acquisitions-in-2020/3)
https://www.toptal.com/finance/valuation/biotech-valuation
(20min delay)