Just a reminder (mainly to myself) that all that matters is the journey from here.
Given the commitment today, the outlay, what selling price, gives what prospective return, and is that enough to park your funds with PAR?
In excel you can use the "IRR" function to do something that fits your own view and divide the expected payout by whatever to reflect your discount for risk. I think it is a simpler way to look at things than a DCF, at least to get a feel for what you are comfortable with.
% return outlay 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Payout year Sell at %of outlay 26% -100 0 0 200 32% -100 0 0 0 300 32% -100 0 0 0 0 400 38% -100 0 0 0 0 500 ie ~$2 43% -100 0 0 0 0 600 48% -100 0 0 0 0 700 52% -100 0 0 0 0 800 55% -100 0 0 0 0 900 58% -100 0 0 0 0 1000 ie ~ $4 44% -100 0 0 300 59% -100 0 0 400 71% -100 0 0 500 115% -100 0 0 1000
Some time back some of us were thinking of a sp >$50, 4 or 5 years ahead.
Investing is all about from here, not from where.
IMO. DYOR.
.
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