PAR - Deal me in, page-82

One question we should ask is who will own PAR as the trial progresses forward over the next few years. I think one big group would be those who get treated for their OA successfully, given the evidence that we see some shareholders here were treated w iPPS.

Once we get the provisional TGA approval, and assume if 5% of OA patient in Australia get treated in 2021, we will have 150,000 potential shareholders. Assuming the share price is $30 and 70% existing SHs are LTH who will not sell below $100, there will only be 460 shares free float per potential shareholder from this patient group. At $30 per share, those 460 shares will only cost $13,800. They would buy as they know once as more Australian patients are successfully treated, there would be less share to go around and once iPPS hit the US market, there will even be much lesser free float around.

If 5% of OA patients in the US get treated in the first year, say in 2023, we will get 1,500,000 potential shareholders. Assuming by then the share price is $100 and we have 50% existing SHs who would not sell the shares till $300 per shares, there is only 153 free float shares per potential shareholder from this group. At $100 per share, 153 shares will cost about $15.3k. Its highly affordable and this group would likely buy as they know as more patients get treated, more will buy.

And, don't forget that some of these potential shareholders would also be large fund managers.

Will $100 happen? I think its highly likely. And, $300 may not even be pipe dream too.

Perhaps Mozz can help to create an infographic on this?