The drug is much safer to administer than insulin? You' could be right but my point is people throwing out these statements like they're facts is just wrong. How do you know this? PAR haven't exactly done a whole range of dosing studies to show what the maximum tolerable dose is have they? My point is the delivery method is significantly worse than existing therapies (putting aside any perceived safety concerns for a minute) and requires continued efforts in order to receive the treatment - and at this point who knows if six weeks is the optimal dosage period - to me the Ph2 data showing efficacy tailing off quite quickly after final dose and back into non-significant territory. Needing at the least 12 visits (to wherever it gets dispensed) for the treatment, compliance rates are unlikely to be as high, which may put pressure on the insurers to discontinue coverage since they're the ones paying for it.
As for @Beaza79 question on will I buy back at any stage? I'm not against it but a whole lot would have to change for me to even consider it. I figure at this rate with what my views are currently on it I'm thinking 50c (~$100m mkt cap) for a punt that they can sort out the mess and salvage something meaningful out of it. But even then I just keep coming back to the point they don't actually own much IP and really just coming in with a generic drug which has failed to be commercialised by numerous entities over the last 30 years. They have a supply agreement with FDA approved manufacturer - and I'm not sure that is entirely even worth $100m. If it's a big prize, someone will likely put concerted efforts into replicating the drug. Yes people have apparently tried, but anyone of note outside of a few small Indian and Pakinstani labs? Technology has significantly improved since bene formulated the compound - do you really think a major pharma with a dedicated team in drug development and a year or two wouldn't be able to do the same if they believed there was a significant market there? My views.
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