So in my binging of financial Podcasts it came to my surprise that when I was listening to 'the call' on ****** that someone had asked PAR to be discussed by the experts of the day.
Discussion surrounding par can be found at 47 min 14 seconds at the attached link:
https://www.******.com.au/media/the-call-friday-19-november?videoId=17247 In the link it is staring the company name ' A U S B I Z'. For those finding through apple podcasts it is the Friday 19 November episode of 'the Call'.
The experts of the day Carl Capolingua (ThinkMarkets) and Adam Dawes (which I quite like from Shaw & Partner - despite our differences on PAR). The recommendations were broadly a hold and a pretty strong sell respectively. Carl noted that PAR is sitting at 20 times sales whilst CSL is sitting at 5 times sales, but did say that given it is a repursued drug really not reinventing the wheel here and it seemed he was pretty confident that PAR was onto a winner. Regardless of all this he did believe that the market cap was quite large and it seems he is severely at odds to a lot of us as to how big the OA market really is. Adam was largely bearish as he believes there is likely going to be a requirement for a capital raise and is concerned about trial costs and timelines - ultimately believing that you could pick this up at $1.80.
Now my analsyis of what they were saying. They are preparing and providing research for only a very short time and haven't gone into the depth that a lot of us have here when it comes to efficacy, safety, and potential market opportunities. Not once was DMOAD even considered in their discussions. I think Adam perfectly summaries the bear case that the market is seeing at the moment. This may show some short sightedness of the market, but either way, it is what I believe is holding the price back at this time and stands true with what a lot of people on here believe. This consideration also ignores the potential for a partnership deal for OA or MPS. When Carl talks about trading on 20x sales, I think he is neglecting that if we got approval from both the FDA and TGA that our sales would increase dramatically and would bring that ratio down significantly and it would then look ridiculously cheap. I believe that they are also severely underestimating the size of the OA market and shows that they spent a lot of time looking at the company as a business rather than the potential market.
I know a few people on hear don't like our stock being discussed on podcasts and TV as it can potentially drive negative sentiment and convince people to sell and but I found it interesting to hear what Carl and Adam had to say. It by no means swayed my conviction but it definitely highlighted some things for me and where the institutional minds are at. Thanks to whoever suggested.
(20min delay)