PAR. SP, page-563

Some brief observations to start the new year.

The not so good:

• Share price stuck in a loop (Bell still needs to unload if they can't find insto to take up their underwriting placement)
• Phase 3 pivotal trial once again moves further out from completed by end CY24 in 10 Oct 2023 CR presentation to just 100% recruitment H1CY25. How is this possible in such a short timeframe?
• MPS trial data now well overdue. Delays do not usually lead to great outcome so MPS deal is likely a non-material event. This is coming from 1 main source with associated analysis of dataset. Note P3 OA has +120 sites that need to be effectively coordinated.
• Dosage of 2mg/kg x 2 may not be most optimal dosage for DMOAD. Passing P3 and max asset value is therefore a catch-22 for PAR. Once again I'd suggest DMOAD labelling on initial NDA remote as is AA.
• Creditability takes a long time to turnaround once lost (i.e. mislead discussions into CR). I'd also make special note on Amos's contradictory performance in AGM one of worst I've listen to in years.
• The decision to defer OA deal in key target markets (US and EU5) has no logical basis if you think through it properly. You can still structure a win-win deal with structured milestones. Also refer to 4th dot point above.

The upside:

• Share price will eventually turn if P3 gets traction under 2mg/kg x 2
• Based on my updated TAM model the current share price represents 0.019% of TAM (ex China) or <13,000 total sales per annum. Noting the target is 10% of TAM (ex China) or x 526 what current share price is indicating.
• Deals are well progress and our share of eventual sales could be well above industry average (Bell has suggested even up to 30%)

Lots or work to do to recover from where we were so lets not gloss over the lack of commercial experience and competencies of PAR management rather lets look to hold them accountable via increased transparency.