I should have my head checked, but I'd like to add more and average down. I'm waiting though. Not certain we've reached proper panic yet. Happy to miss out and hold what I have if it turns.
The risk of almost total capital loss here is real, however. Not sure everyone understands that. Or the damage it will inflict if subsequent CRs are required at ever-collapsing prices. Chances of raising $100m at $2+ was spurned due to inaccuracy of foresight on timeframes and requirements from the board and CFO's. They drastically underestimated the power of the instos when you are a non-revenue company on a public bourse. Ten times the dilution required to raise cash now at $0.20 and all potential blue-sky valuations are watered down proportionately - even if everything goes perfectly to plan with trials. After the $0.20's it'll be the $0.10's, then who knows, and the pain compounds each time. Any opportunity to negotiate deals from a position of strength have just about evaporated - so remove a lot more meat there too. There may well be upside still available, but maybe (just maybe) it's a 20-bagger one day years from now for those that get in under $0.20 assuming everything goes well. Not wonderful for those who bought at the highs, eh? There's a strong case to say that the top may well already be in for $PAR. All that future upside offset by poor capital management in the last 18 months, and across the next 12-18 months if the SOI is allowed to explode.
The only thing that matters now is deals. Non-dilutive funding at reasonable terms. I barely care about trial data releases, future indications, board composition, or anything else anymore, that's effectively just noise now. It ALL comes down to signing deals to get very sizeable amounts of cash through the door to limit (or, with a fat slice of luck, still avoid entirely) the otherwise potentially mushrooming dilution that is appearing on the horizon for this listco.
Minimise it if you wish, but the point stands that no-one came in for a RRV deal. No-one came in for a Chikv deal. They just fell away, to be barely mentioned anymore. What of MPS and OA? So far only anecdotal tales of a lowball offer which was so off the radar that the board didn't even considering detailing it's rejection in an official release. Just an offhand mention in a preso. There is no doubt reason to expect more interest in these indications, of course there is....i'm not being intentionally churlish. However, do not disregard the risk that once-anticipated levels of interest never eventuate, is my view.
Even if a deal comes through now with $30m upfront, it's great news of course - but that doesn't fix everything. We'll still need more. This price weakness puts us in the most perilous position to mortgage off the future of the company just to see out trials. I still think there's reason for hope, but i'd urge everyone not to wave away the risk that grievous damage has now already been done.
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