Paranoid - Friday, page-4

Kicked in the Teeth. Thursday Evening Liqueurs. 20 August, 2015.











Yesterday I proclaimed with some certainty that the short term trend was down.

Just when you feel you're on a sure thing ... the market will kick you in the teeth.

Still - I don't think we're far off the low for this run down. But, as Keynes says, the market can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.

XJO down heavily -1.7%. Volume was above average - but nothing extreme. Volume has been high for the past three days, so it looks like we're close to a bottom.

Here's the XJO chart:




Energy was the worst hit sector today, down 5.78%. The chart is now in a cascade fall downwards. It's still not as serious as it was back in November, 2014 - but until we see some sign of a clear base forming, it's best to avoid the sector. Some of the biggest stocks in the sector are Woodside, Santos and Caltex.

The banks were hard hit again. CBA -2.71%, ANZ -2.38%, NAB -1.66%, WBC -1.56%. Despite those dire looking results, the banks, with the exception of CBA, are holding more or less at horizontal support.

The Miners continue in their secular bear market. Until we see the DPO (Detrended Price Oscillator) rise above the zero line its best to look elsewhere - and then we'd only be thinking about a medium term counter trend rally, not the end of the secular bear market:


RB