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Paranoid - Tuesday, page-7

  1. 11,125 Posts.
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    A couple of articles some paranoid people may want to see:

    "Stock trader who called three crashes sees 20% collapse Insight: Veteran investor expects bear market within 12 months"  - from Marketwatch

    "MIAMI (MarketWatch) — Mark Cook, a veteran investor included in Jack Schwager’s best-selling book, “Stock Market Wizards,” and the winner of the 1992 U.S. Investing Championship with a 563% return, believes the U.S. market is in trouble. The primary indicator that Cook uses is the “Cook Cumulative Tick,” a proprietary measure he created in 1986 that uses the NYSE Tick in conjunction with stock prices. His indicator alerted him to the 1987, 2000, and 2007 crashes. The indicator also helped to identify the beginning of a bull market in the first quarter of April 2009, when the CCT unexpectedly went up, turning Cook into a bull. What does Cook see now?  “There have been only two instances when the NYSE Tick and stock prices diverged radically, and that was in the first quarter of 2000 and the third quarter of 2007. The third time was April of 2014,” Cook says."

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-trader-who-called-three-crashes-sees-20-collapse-2014-07-28

    I suppose a combination of the end of QE and higher interests could result in such a correction.

    2.  The always bearish (and so far mostly wrong) John Hussman keeps railing against the bull market

    "This stock bubble is ‘beyond 1929 and 2007,’ says John Hussman July 27, 2014,

    John Hussman can generally be counted on for a bearish take on the stock market. But his latest weekly commentary letter is a doozy, with some particularly pointed remarks aimed at investors who continue to believe valuations are fair in stocks. The economist runs Hussman Funds, and since the financial crisis he’s been a prominent critic of Federal Reserve policy. His investment choices are concentrated in “defensive” positions in stocks and U.S. Treasurys. And if you take a look at his writing, it’s no secret why. Here’s the money quote from the latest commentary:

    “Make no mistake – this is an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one. On the most historically reliable measures, it is easily beyond 1972 and 1987, beyond 1929 and 2007, and is now within about 15% of the 2000 extreme. The main difference between the current episode and that of 2000 is that the 2000 bubble was strikingly obvious in technology, whereas the present one is diffused across all sectors in a way that makes valuations for most stocks actually worse than in 2000. “

    3.  Jeremy Grantham (GMO) forecast real expected returns over the next 7 years by asset class

    US equities , large caps -1.7%, small cap -5.2%, high quality caps +2.2%,

    https://www.gmo.com/Asia-Pacific/CM...oWxPr575+QTggND+0g25QwvkTUbFNbB3wNZIjDEq/Nw==

    I do not know if these figures include dividends.

    loki (I might turn into a martis disciple if I keep reading such articles)
 
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