"Let's assume a further discount and we only trade at 70% of look through value. That gives us a number of $1.75bn. Or around $1."
So that's your upside if the for sale sign attracts buyers but what is the downside if they don't fix the recovery issue and can't lift production and the short term supply and demand picture for Li prices isn't as rosy as many punters expect.
I'll stick with my 52 cents by the end of the year. That prediction will be all the more likely if the "partnering process" amounts to naught and they struggle to raise more funding and they can't bring the mine up to feasibilty.
Answer on the partnering process "by mid-2019", how long can the market trade on FOMO. It's a mine, what has happened with other companies matters very little to its long term future unless they can ramp it up to specifications.
Ansteel bought shares in GBG at 85cents during the Karara iron ore development but it didn't stop those shares falling to about 1 cent when the ramp up failed and iron ore prices fell back to earth from their boom levels.
This current run up in the share price is just speculative IMO and the important news was in the commercial production announcement and the only good news there IMO is the price that will be recieved in the March quarter. If you look at the actual recovery chart it is extremely variable (bouncing around) and little explanation is given for such variablity. The actual recoveries when based on three week averages are well behind the expected ramp up curve and appear to be flattening around 50%.
Hopefully for your sakes the company finds another Asian statist pigeon who isn't interested in profitabilty to buy into this so far failing story. Esh
(20min delay)