'm the kinda guy that if I like the material, studying it is just no effort...it's fun to read...I actually savour it. Perhaps I'm on a scale of some type but I actually like printing off the latest broker report, getting some quiet time well away from distractions and just reading, learning and savouring the info about PAR through someone else's view, line by glorious line.
I'd also say I'm slightly more patient than the average random person.
That doesn't mean that I don't look at our share price on a daily basis.Looking at it daily (hourly?) doesn't mean I will ACT....maybe I might top up a touch here and there...but certainly not changing my stance and selling just based on some disconnect like a poorly share price. Nah, too much going on company-wise...scientific-wise and patient-wise for me to do anything silly like that (my views).
But it also doesn't mean that I don't want our share price to take off...and now....and how! It also doesn't mean I have never sold too early on OTHER stocks. Other stocks I well and truly should've kept *closes eyes*...Ah the mistakes...but that's not happening on this one...we learn from our mistakes, right?
Yes I do have a plan to de-risk as we rise up and crystalise some profits along the journey, but by far for the bulk, I'm keeping till much later on and certainly the core, well not selling....why would you when the potential is just so great....(my views).
In truth I've been waiting patiently since 2015...Since IPO. While that's not really true as I just placed a small 'sample' of money at that IPO stage, it's really since about 2017 that I've been waiting.What's kept me going? Why didn't I sell at x 2....at x 4.....heck even there was a x10 a year and a half ago.....in fact while a few have been rushing OUT of the stadium just recently, I've been waiting to go IN....yep, I've been slowly topping up...when I get that monthly pay cheque...a little gets allocated to the share market.
The research keeps me going...I enjoy reading about the science. I want to tackle it head on...I want to understand whats happening under the hood, it should not be black box magic...it should be something we understand, we know and we should be and are AHEAD of the average bear...average holder, and especially the average non holder! I know what our patients have been saying...and I know what research some of you guys are bringing back to us. This puts us in a unique and dam* early position of privilege/advantage in my views.
I also know to wait.....4 to 6 years of already waiting and at last some 3 more years min. still to wait before sales really start.......maybe a bit less before exciting times, don't forget a deal could trigger much sooner before real sales start. (My views).
I'm going the other way...we've had hundreds of thousands of shares trade hands at low prices...I'm going the other way...I know a lot of you are too (not advice).
No matter what I do...I will always hold a core position and as Scott Williams recently laughed about with Paul, one day it will hopefully pay some dividends...some return for us as our underlying shares go up.
So what do some of these analyst/experts look for? I kinda covered some of this in the Moat Posts but just yesterday I got another snippet of how some other professionals do it.
BACKSTORY
Well I knew PAR was presenting the day before yesterday, but there were a whole heap of other small biotech related companies presenting. I missed the vast majority of them with pesky work getting in the way but I did catch one which was called Horizon 3. They are a bio fund with some years of experience.
We are leaders in health science innovation. As one of Australia’s most progressive investment funds, Horizon 3 Biotech partners with health innovators, researchers, scientists and technologists to turn their thinking into better health outcomes for everyone.
Yeah a free plug for them, I have nothing to do with them, no affiliation and until a couple of days ago I hadn't even heard of them....read on for the relevance...
What do they look for? Let's investigate but as an addition to just copying and pasting the criteria, let's have a look and whether we pass the test?
THE TESTS
So what does a professional like this Horizon 3 look for when they go to filter a Bio Pharma....It's a two to three stage process according to these guys...
STAGE 1
A good place to start, need to have a good experienced team that will take the company forward. Common goals and motivated staff are key. Helps a lot if they can align themselves with what the company is doing...how it will benefit their ultimate customers.
It's an easy one for us. What better mission can you have if you stop, halt or reduce people's pain? If you can make your customers happy...if you can change their life...if you can add enormous value without heavy side effects, without risk....our staff are going to get a lot of job satisfaction! It's not just monetary remuneration that makes you happy in a job...seeing the difference YOU play as an important COG will bring you into work smiling. The staff at PAR that are there now will be like pioneers....the first 25 or so... Again in just my opinion, it will be a claim to fame one day...specially if this thing goes global.
Each and every one of them will have played a direct hand in possibly one of the most amazing repurposed drugs out there.
I know for a fact that our wonderful PAR staff have been working over and beyond the basic requirements...if you are in touch with any of them, please be sure to acknowledge them. They are also working for us, the shareholders.
Tech can be the Biology, the Chemistry behind our product. What makes what we have unique? How does it work? What are the mechanics, well science, behind it? There is a lot of research on our molecule with more to come.
As an example, it's less lucrative if you buy an Amazon today at some $3,489 per share and market cap of 1.76 Trillion, yeah thats with a 'T'. Not to say it's not going to go up from here, but 20 X from here? Pass.
But how about PAR? $2.20? Is a 20 X possible? What do you think?
Do we pass a valuation filter? Well it's a bit hard without current sales...but future wise...it's looking good in my books.
Another important area, no point in us spending all the time, money and sheer effort if someone can just copy what we have.
A few considerations: Is it easy to copy? NO, 150 plus steps, get one step wrong and you get a different molecule Are their protections in place? YES , Patents and supply lock up.
More for the accountants, but how is our funding, too much debt? (How about no debt!)...do we have funds available, can we raise them in the future easily? Have we already gone through raisings to minimise dilution?
Ok that's a wrap for the first stage of filters....and a wrap for Part 1.
In Part 2 we cover the next set of filters and assess how we would stack up...
My post in Part 2 will not just be mere bullet points...I will give you some quotes to digest....rationale for my thinking and you know what, I'm going to even include another Mozz Bonus ® ...these are rare but in my explicit opinion it will make your night....or day, depending on when you come across this....I was stunned when I read it....
PAR Price at posting:
$2.18 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
'm the kinda guy that if I like the material, studying it is just no effort...it's fun to read...I actually savour it. Perhaps I'm on a scale of some type but I actually like printing off the latest broker report, getting some quiet time well away from distractions and just reading, learning and savouring the info about PAR through someone else's view, line by glorious line.
(20min delay)