I am inclined to agree about the risk of increasing the on EXU and hope they just drop it soon. I think the share price will react favourably to this, or if not to the continuing quarterly profit. In my years of following RMS their share price is always hit hard by uncertainty.
Their mine life has always stayed on the low side and many investors do not do their own research of past reports to see it is always replenished. Their margins have decreased in recent quarterlies, but that is the same with nearly all gold producers. EVN use acquisitions to lower their costs, but if you follow individual mines the costs all seem to be increasing. The quarterlies show consistent cash profits, even with capital costs and exploration replenishing reserves.
I was one of those very sceptical about Edna May being a bit expensive and too far gone. However, it has been managed and kept cash flow positive even with the ore restrictions. The forecast is for this to continue and with their strong cash position it has given them potential to grow quickly when an opportunity presents itself for ore. The only risk is they rush in and pay too much.
EXU has potential, but the trucking costs are only (I think) saving about $20M from EXU building their own mill over life of mine. Given the EXU boards statements regarding the ALK offer the shareholders have no choice but to accept it or risk insolvency. Adding in the ALK shares and the options I would not want to see even the current 4:1 offer. My main reason for this is that even after seeing all the drilling details ALK and EXU consider their 12c a fair price only by gifting ALK further options. I think the options are low if they are priced in the money, the results are not going to see the EXU share price double, or if they are then they really are expensive gifts. The deciding factor in the pricing is the risk, which it seems most EXU shareholders posting do not understand. EXU may have the goods to do very well and I hope they do for their shareholders sake. Obviously ALK and the EXU board still see that outcome at significant risk. Therefore I would not want to see RMS put their cash on the line by adding cash to their offer as some suggest.
This is only my opinion. It would just be nice to put this whole offer behind us and see if the market approves or not.
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