Thanks Red! Great to get some feedback and appreciate your number crunching.
I agree, it would potentially be a big sacrifice once sales momentum picks up. But it could also, from the day of FDA approval, provide a huge boost to marketing and R&D to increase sales to rest-of-world.
I've put some numbers into a spreadsheet:
A note about my assumptions. I've used total sepsis cases because I believe there is a case for using 327 in every case of sepsis due to the rapid decline in survival if treatment is delayed to await antibiogram results. This may change in future with rapidly improving diagnostic technologies. For UTI and burns I've assumed that 327 treatment would be delayed until a 'superbug' has been diagnosed (or failed to respond to conventional antibiotics) and so have used a very rough ~8% UTI's and ~15% burns.
So I agree, with modest pricing and market uptake, sales could quickly and dramatically exceed that of a PASTEUR contract.
But what if the topical product, under it's own separate brand name, could secure a contract? This could provide some early cash flow to hit the ground running, helping to fund marketing and R&D of other products, without sacrificing a huge sales potential in the USA.
If anyone has done any crude modelling of sales, please share.
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