RRS range resources limited

Full coverage of all our assets. Newly invested? This report is...

  1. 490 Posts.
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    Full coverage of all our assets. Newly invested? This report is a must read, though a few weeks old now?
    The pictures are nice as well, especially for 'the hard of reading'...
    http://www.rangeresources.com.au/investors/news/news-single-display/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=69&cHash=76fe968fd97f2a458ef4115c55a8ec95

    (edited)by me d3t...too long!
    http://www.rangeresources.com.au/investors/news/news-single-display/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=69&cHash=76fe968fd97f2a458ef4115c55a8ec95

    RANGE RESOURCES LTD
    Investment Highlights 12 August 2011

    Value per share A$ 0.28
    Analyst: Scott Simpson
    Phone: (+61 8) 9263 1679
    Email: [email protected]
    We are initiating coverage on Range Resources Ltd (RRS) with a
    SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a price target of
    $0.28/sh. RRS is a unique oil and gas explorer with frontier
    exploration programs in Georgia and in Puntland and underpinned by its
    recently acquired Trinidad oil project. It is leveraged to significant
    upside via a busy exploration program through 2011, with the ongoing
    drilling of its first of two planned wells in Georgia, the upcoming drilling
    of the first two wells in Puntland in 20 years, a significant 21 well
    development drilling program underway in Trinidad aimed at doubling
    production and further drilling planned in the US at its Texas oil and gas
    projects.
     Drilling of Mukhiani-1 underway. RRS?s first exploration well in
    Georgia is underway, targeting a mean 115mmbbls of oil place in
    the Vani-3 prospect. This will be followed by a second well on Block
    VIa, targeting the Kersubi-2 with an estimate of 165mmbbls of oil
    in place. We estimate unrisked upside for the program of $0.20/sh.
     Mobilisation of rig in Puntland in the Sep Q. Drilling of two
    prospects, targeting 300mmbbls and 375mmbbls of prospective
    resource is set to commence in the Dec Q. While Puntland is
    frontier exploration, it is potentially high value given RRS?s
    coverage across two of the most prospective basins in Puntland -
    thought to be Anogulous to Yemen, located across the Gulf of Aden.
     Trinidad provides a profitable production base. Trinidad
    provides a low cost and low risk production asset, with scope for a
    material expansion in production from targeting booked reserves.
    The company recently successfully drilled the first of a 21 well
    program aimed at doubling production from the current ~700bopd.
     Significant upside in reserves expansion and exploration.
    There is significant upside potential in Trinidad via ramp-up of
    production, expansion of reserves from step-out drilling and
    significant upside potential in the underlying Herrera formations
    (and potentially Cretaceous) which has provided material
    discoveries in adjacent acreage.

    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 1
    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility
    or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.12 August 2011 Range Resources Ltd
    Company Overview
    Range Resources Ltd is an oil and gas exploration and production company, which is duallisted on the ASX (RRS) and AIM (RRL). Its initial focus was the exploration of 2 x highly
    prospective PSA?s in Puntland, Somalia which were awarded in 2005 and then in 2009 RRS
    broadened its portfolio via an agreement to acquire an interest in 2 x exploration blocks in
    Georgia. Since then RRS has de-risked its portfolio of assets with the addition of a number
    of producing oil and gas fields. In 2009 RRS purchased interest in its first production asset,
    acquiring interest in a gas/condensate fields in Texas, followed by the acquisition of an
    interest in an oil project in East Texas in 2010 and in addition entered into an agreement to
    acquire a 10% interest in several producing oil assets in Trinidad. In early 2011 RRS
    acquired the remaining 90% interest in the Trinidad oil assets, which are currently
    producing at a rate of ~700bopd. Very little investment has been made in maintaining
    production over the previous years and RRS believes that a minimal work program should
    boost production to +4000bopd within 2-3 years. A key highlight of the Trinidad acquisition
    is the inclusion in the purchase of a fleet of drilling and work-over rigs, experienced
    personnel, workshops and other integrated equipment services that provides for an almost
    self-sufficient project.
    Figure 1: Trinidad Oil Tank Battery Figure 2: Mukhiani Well Site, Georgia
    Source: RRS Investor Presentation ? June 2011 Source: RRS Operations Update ? August 2011
    The recent acquisition of the remaining interest in Trinidad has significantly shifted the risk
    profile of the company, with a low risk development drilling program aimed at targeting
    certified reserves and is likely to result in a significant boost in production and earnings. In
    addition, the assets present the potential for significant upside with production currently
    focused on only 5% of the permitted area and the deeper Herrera and potentially
    Cretaceous formations providing significant exploration potential. The assets balance the
    company?s exploration programs in Georgia and particularly in Puntland which is inherently
    high risk but potentially high value, given the location, prospectivity and size of the
    acreage.
    RRS has a busy program ahead for the remainder of 2011 and is leveraged to a number of
    activities across its asset base, including the ongoing drilling of its first major exploration
    well in Georgia, mobilization of a rig in Puntland for the drilling of the states first
    exploration well in ~20 years, a significant 21 well development drilling program underway
    in Trinidad aimed at doubling production and further drilling planned in the US at its Texas
    projects.
    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 2
    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility
    or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 12 August 2011 Range Resources Ltd
    Asset Overview
    Trinidad Oil Project
    Overview
    During the June Q 2011 RRS completed the acquisition of the remaining interest 90%
    interest in the holding and subsidiary companies to three production licences in Trinidad.
    The acquisition provides operatorship of an oil producing asset with significant scope for
    expansion of production, based on the development of known reserves. The project consists
    of the Morne Diablo, Beach Marcelle and South Quarry Blocks which cover 16,253acres
    onshore the southern region of Trinidad. The country has produced some 3bnbbls to date
    and currently produces at a rate ~100kbopd. It lies within the Orinoco Fold belt - which is a
    prolific producer in Venezuela, situated some 14km to the south-west. Some 94% of the
    country?s oil is produced by the state oil company, Petrotrin, with other producers including
    BG, BHP, Repsol, EOG, Primera Energy and Parex Resources.
    Historic and existing production is from the company?s oil projects is from the regionally
    prolific and shallow Forest and Cruse formations which form that basis of the certified
    6.9mmbbls of 3P reserves. However there is substantial exploration upside in the deeper
    Herrera formation which is productive in adjacent acreage. A key highlight of the acquisition
    was that in addition to the 3 x large acreage blocks, it included a 100% owned drilling
    company with a fleet of drilling rigs, work over rigs, drilling services, maintenance
    workshops and support services. The ownership of its own drilling rigs and services is
    invaluable, providing an almost self sufficient project which can schedule its activities as
    desired. RRS recently announced success from the drilling of 1
    st
    well in a 21 well program,
    encountering 145ft of oil pay in the Shallow Forest formation. The program is targeting an
    increase in production to 1,400-1,800bopd from current production levels of ~700bopd.
    Figure 3: Trinidad License Locations
    Source: RRS Investor Presentation ? June 2011

    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 3
    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility
    or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 12 August 2011 Range Resources Ltd
    Geological Setting
    Trinidad lies on the South American tectonic plate and is part of the Orinoco Fold belt which
    is a prolific producer in Venezuela. The three project licences are located within a complex
    thrust belt and along a surface geological feature called the Southern Range, which
    stretches from East to West along the southern coast of the island. There is a very active oil
    system with surface oil seeps commonly observed along the Southern Range. The shallower
    producing zones in the Morne Diablo and South Quarry fields are characterised by fluvialdeltaic sediments ranging to tidal and wave dominated sediments. Due to faulting in the
    Beach Marcelle area, the sands are thicker in this area and better developed.
    The Pliocene aged Forest zones (pink in the figure below) provide the shallow targets, with
    the Lower Forest from 250-300m and the Shallow Forest at depths of 100-150m. In the
    beach Marcelle area, the sands are known as the Gros Morne formation, where RRS is
    considering a water flood program to increase production. The Cruse formation (orange in
    the figure below) ranges in depth from 600m to 2,000m and is divided into three distinct
    zones, namely the Upper, Middle and Lower formations, with the middle Pliocene aged
    reservoir providing the most extensive and productive zone in the region. The Lower Cruse
    is productive but is relatively underexplored in the region. Most of the fields are simple 4-
    way dip structures with sufficient closure to provide multiple oil bearing horizons, as
    detailed in the cross section below.
    The deeper Herrera formation is productive in adjacent acreage and provides considerable
    exploration upside. The formation is a Miocene-aged deepwater turbidite that is
    predominantly found in to the north east of the acreage. The Penal/Barrackpore oil field
    provides a prolific field analogue, located some 5-10km to the Northeast of Morne Diablo
    block and has produced some 60mmbbls to date from the Herrera formation which ranges
    in thickness from 50-800ft at depths of 1,200m to 3,000m. In mid-2010, Parex Resources
    drilled the successful Firecrown-1 well on the Moruga Block, intersecting oil bearing Herrera
    at 8,4000ft some 5-10km from Morne Diablo. Existing 3D seismic across the permit
    provides a large inventory of Herrera prospects and RRS is hoping to spud a Herrera well in
    late 2011. Success in the Herrera could have a substantial impact on production and
    reserves, despite a relatively low well estimated cost of US$1.5m. The deeper upper
    Cretaceous formation is also highly prospective; however at this stage no drilling is
    planned.
    Figure 4: Morne Diablo Cross Section Figure 5: Independent Reserves Assessment for Trinidad
    Source: RRS Release ? April 2011 Source: RRS Release ? April 2011
    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 4
    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility
    or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 12 August 2011 Range Resources Ltd
    Asset Background
    In July 2010 the company announced that it had entered into a binding Heads of
    Agreement (HOA) through SOCA Petroleum, to acquire a 10% interest in companies and
    wholly owned subsidiaries that hold production licences for 3 x onshore production licences
    in Trinidad and 100% of a local drilling contractor for a total of $US4.25m. Then in April it
    announced it had entered into an agreement for the acquisition of the remaining 90%
    interest, which was completed in June 2011. The cost of the acquisition was a further
    US$52m, the issue of 35.84m ordinary shares plus the potential for two additional
    milestone share issues of 17.9m shares a piece upon reaching production of 1,250bopd and
    2,500bopd.
    The Morne Diablo block is the main producing field, comprising the vast majority of booked
    reserves. The field was discovered in 1938 and some 340 wells have been drilled on the
    block in depths ranging from 200-6,000ft. Approximately 50% of these wells remain in
    production with 9.75mmbbls produced to date. Current production is around 500bopd.
    The South Quarry and Beach Marcelle blocks total 7,200 acres, with 220 wells drilled to
    date in the Cruse and Forest formations. Current production is estimate at ~200bopd.
    Reserves Certification
    An independent recoverable reserves assessment was completed by Forrest Garb and
    Associates. The assessment estimates some 6.9mmbbls of 3P reserves and a prospective
    resource of a further 20mmbbls. The certification did not include the Beach Marcelle
    acreage or any potential for the Herrera formation. It is also worth noting that a large
    proportion of the probable reserves are incremental recoveries for proven locations that
    RRS believe are easily recoverable with modern techniques but were unable to be included
    in the proven undeveloped category, given historic production. We would view the
    additional probable reserves as low risk given the large amount of well data and production
    history available for the acreage and hence have used the 3P figure as the basis of our
    valuation.
    Drilling and Services
    A key highlight of the acquisition was the inclusion of the drilling equipment and services
    sub-contractor. It includes 5 x drilling rigs, 3 x work-over rigs, 1 x swab rig, plus a service
    workshop, pipe yard, storage tanks and production facilities. The drilling and services is an
    invaluable asset, eliminating reliance on third parties in terms of cost and schedule.
    Replacement cost of the business is estimated at US$25m. It is worth noting that several of
    the rigs have the capability of drilling the Herrera formation.
    Current Operations and Forward Program
    RRS suggests that the current production of around 700bopd is a result of underinvestment
    in drilling and work-over activities at the project and is undertaking an initial 21 well
    production program to boost production to 1,400 to 1,800bopd. Drilling will initially focus
    entirely on the Morne Diablo permit, with development plans for the other two permits
    currently being assessed. RRS recently announced the completion of drilling at its first well
    in the program and its first well as operator, completing the MD247 well at 900ft into the
    Shallow Forest formation. The well intersected 145ft of oil pay and will be completed as a
    producer with an expected IP (Initial Production) rate of ~30bopd. The forward program will
    target the Lower Forest formation at 1000ft and the Upper Cruse at 2,000ft, plus the Lower
    Cruise at 6,500ft via a series of infill and step-out wells on the primary Morne Diablo block
    which should result in an increase and reclassification of reserves, plus expansion of
    mapped field limits. Following this initial program, RRS believes that a dedicated work
    program could lift production to 4,000bopd within 24-36months and success in the Herrera
    could boost production to 8,000-10,000bopd. Herrera wells in adjacent acreage range on
    IP from 1,000-3,000bopd.
    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 5
    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility
    or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 12 August 2011 Range Resources Ltd
    Figure 6: Morne Diablo Field Figure 7: Herrera Prospectivity ? Nearby Discoveries
    Source: RRS Investor Presentation ? June 2011 Source: RRS Investor Presentation ? June 2011
    Project Economics
    We have valued the Trinidad project based on NPV analysis of a full field development to
    target the recovery of certified 3P reserves. We have assumed that a targeted drilling
    program achieves an increase in production form current rates of ~700bopd to around
    4,000bopd over a period of 36-months. Well costs are expected to range from $100k for
    the shallower Forest formation, US$200K for an Upper Cruse, US$650k for Lower Cruse and
    ~US$1.5k for a Herrera well. In total we forecast expenditure of US$35m to target reserves
    of 6.9mmbbls, equating to ~$5/bbl in finding costs. Production results will vary from well to
    well depending on location. However in broad terms wells are expected to IP at ~30bopd in
    the lower Forest and 50-100bopd in the Upper to Lower Cruse. Herrera wells in adjacent
    acreage range in IP from 1,000-3,000bopd.
    We have assumed operating costs average US$10/bbl. Produced oil is sold to Petrotrin?s
    Pointe-a-Pierre Refinery and attracts a ~$10/bbl discount to WTI. Trinidad Government and
    over-riding royalties total 27.5% and a Special Petroleum Tax is levied at 18% of net
    revenue, after deductions for 100% of exploration costs and 40% of development costs.
    Tax is then levied at 55%.
    Note that there is material scope for exploration upside, given that the current fields only
    cover 5% of the licence area and 3D seismic across its acreage has yielded a number of
    Herrera prospects for drilling. While we have not included any Herrera wells in our project
    NPV we have included Herrera prospects in our exploration and appraisal valuation. Our
    valuation is based on certified reserves over the Morne Diablo and South Quarry areas and
    did not include the Beach Marcelle area. We believe that there is also material upside in
    booking reserves in this area and have allowed for some reserves upside in our valuation.
    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 6
    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility
    or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 12 August 2011 Range Resources Ltd
    North Chapman Ranch ? Texas, USA
    Overview
    RRS holds a 20-25% interest in the Chapman Ranch project, a gas/condensate field located
    in South Texas. There have been 2 x wells drilled on the project to date and over the June
    Q gross production averaged ~4.8mmscf/d and 400bcpd but was reportedly as high as
    9.3mmscf/d and 800bcpd. The field is located in the Nueces County in Texas on North
    Chapman Ranch which is situated in the prolific Frio trend north of the large Mobil David
    and Doughty fields. The Mobil David field was discovered in 1965 and has produced some
    250bcf and 10mmbbls of condensate, predominantly from the Anderson sandstone. More
    recently, several operators in the area have successfully produced from the Howell Hight
    formation, the key target in the company?s project area. Based on the results of the first
    Smith#1 well, an independent reserve assessment was completed and then upgraded on
    the back of subsequent data to gross 3P reserves of 239.5bcf of gas, 18.4mmbbls of
    condensate and 17.3mmbbls of NGL?s (Natural Gas Liquids). The 3P certification is based on
    reasonable assumptions for well spacing and recoveries and represents a full development
    of the field. However at this stage we have conservatively based our assessment on
    recovery of the 2P volumes only, until further results become available. With over 30
    potential well locations the field provides a productive development asset which will
    continue to de-risk as additional wells are brought online, resulting in conversion if 3P to 2P
    reserves.
    Figure 8: Chapman Ranch - Wellhead Figure 9: Chapman Ranch ? Field Outline
    Source: RRS Investor Presentation ? June 2011 Source: RRS Investor Presentation ? June 2011
    Background
    In 2009 RRS farmed into the North Chapman Ranch Project, acquiring a 25% interest in the
    Smith#1 well which was already underway and 20% in subsequent wells on the 1,680acre
    project. It acquired its interest from Crest Resources Inc, a private US company, which had
    previously drilled the Zdansky#1 well into the targeted formation but due to hole problems
    was unable to complete the well. The Smith#1 well was the first successful well on the
    project and RRS secured entry at a minimal upfront cost contribution of $1m for the drilling
    of the well plus $350k to fund costs to production. This vertical well was drilled 13,975ft
    into the target formation, cased and then connected to sales. In February 2010 the well
    was flowed (pre-frac) at an IP of 2.5mmscf/d at a pressure of 8,000psi from one of three prospective zones before stabilising at 3.3mmscf/d and 290bcpd (barrels of condensate per
    day). In May 2010 the JV spudded its second well, the Russell Bevly #1, some 1,900ft
    north-northwest of Smith#1, with Range meeting its 20% WI share of the US$3.8m cost.
    The well was drilled to a depth of 14,225ft and completed for production after open-hole
    logging confirmed the presence of 130ft of net oil and gas pay in the Howell Hight
    formation. In September 2010 the well was tested from an 11ft of perforation into a single
    zone, with an IP of 1mmscf/d and 90bcpd at a pressure of 8,000psi. The two wells were
    produced for several months before a fracture stimulation program was undertaken in the
    March Q 2011 which dramatically increased rates. Specialists FracTech.

    The report also provided a summary of an economic evaluation for the project, on a P1, P2
    and P3 basis for on an undiscounted and discounted NPV(10) basis. The figures provided
    are based on net cash flows to RRS and are pre-corporate tax. Hence the pre-tax 2P value
    of (P1+P2) US$106m is close to our post-tax net NPV valuation of A$63m and highlights
    the upside from conversion if 3P to 2P reserves.
    Field Development
    The North Chapman Ranch provides a material development asset with some 30+ possible
    well locations across the 1,680acre field required to develop the estimated 3P reserves. The
    company suggests it is targeting an average IP rate (post-frac of 4mmscf/d and 320bcpd
    which represents a CGR (Condensate to Gas Ratio) of 80bbls/mmscf. The operator recently
    reported that it had signed a rig for the drilling of a 3rd and potentially 4th well, expected to
    commence in mid-October. The next well to be drilled will be Albrecht #1, located 1 mile
    south-east of Smith#1. The well is important in confirming reserves to in the southeast of
    the field and in addition will test the Anderson and an additional formation. It is also
    important in securing acreage under production which eliminates the requirement for renegotiating leases, thought to be in the order of $500-600/acre initially but likely higher
    now.
    Project Economics
    Our project valuation of $63m is currently based on development of 2P reserves only but
    will look to move to risked valuation of 3P reserves and further production results become
    available. We have assumed a total of 18 wells are drilled to recover gross 2P reserves as
    detailed above, with individual well EUR?s of 5.2bcf of gas, 0.4mmbbls of condensate and
    0.4mmbbls of NGL?s. Our production assumptions for gas have been grossed-up to reflect
    the full gas stream (inclusive of NGL?s) which we have later accounted for by assuming gas
    shrinkage of 20%, an NGL ratio of 57bbls/mmscf and sales at 50% of the assumed oil
    price. Well costs are estimated at a $3.8m dry hole, $5.5m completed for production and
    $7.0m including frac. However there is potential for lower longer term costs as the project
    moves into costs to development phase. We have allowed for operating expenses of
    US$10k/well/month, plus production taxes. Royalties are believed to be in the order of
    30%. We have assumed the JV drills 2 more wells this year followed by 4 wells in 2012 and
    8 wells per year thereafter. As discussed later in the document we have also allowed for
    some risked 3P reserves upside, to capture the value from conversion of 3P to 2P reserves.
    RESEARCH NOTE ? PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 8

    Cotton Valley - Texas, USA
    Overview
    RRS holds a 21.75% interest in the East Texas Cotton Valley project, located in the Red
    River County in East Texas. The project covers an area of 1,570acres across a shallow oil
    reservoir in the Cotton Valley formation which was discovered in 2008 with the drilling of a
    vertical well to 5,300ft which encountered more than 100ft of gross oil pay. In June 2010
    RRS entered into the project and in early 2011 the Ross 3H was drilled to total depth of
    8,900ft with a 3,400ft horizontal section through the targeted horizon. Prior to fracture
    stimulation, swabbing tests of the perforated section revealed unexpected water. The
    presence of this water may be due to water flooding operations in the adjacent acreage and
    is the subject of ongoing investigation. Independent assessment of the project has
    estimated 3P reserves of some 5.4mmbbls of oil which appears reasonable on the assumed
    recoveries and well spacing. However given that the project is yet to produce commercially,
    we have provided a risked valuation for the project based on development of the
    2.7mmbbls of gross 2P reserves, with the additional possible volumes providing potential
    upside.
    Background
    In June 2010 RRS announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire a 13.56%
    interest across some 1,570acres comprising the newly discovered East Cotton Valley Oil
    Field for total leasehold acquisition costs of US$254k. The field was discovered in 2008 with
    the drilling of a vertical well to 5,300ft which discovered some 100ft of gross pay and was
    immediately put into production. A subsequent horizontal appraisal well was drilled but was
    never tested due to damage incurred during completion. However the well reportedly
    encountered good quality reservoir in the horizontal section. In January 2011 the company
    increased its stake in the project to 21.75% after acquiring an additional 8.1875% WI for a
    total of US$148k in lease acquisition costs and an over riding royalty (ORR) retained by the
    seller. Then in March 2011 the JV commenced drilling of the Ross 3H well. The well was
    drilled to a depth of 5,500ft vertically before commencing the 3,400ft horizontal section
    which reached a total measured depth of 8,900ft. Open-hole logs, samples and consistent
    oil shows while drilling provided significant encouragement for a successful production test.
    However following perforation, two swabbing runs yielded unexpected water which is the
    subject of ongoing investigations. The operator believes that there is a strong likelihood
    that neighbouring water flood operations may be the cause of the issue and water samples
    are currently being analysed. Given the proven production from an offset well and
    indications while drilling, RRS remains confident that the Ross 3H will be successfully
    completed for production.

    Field Development
    The forward field development plan is largely dependent on the outcome of investigations
    into the source of water at Ross 3H and the subsequent successful completion of the well.
    However assuming that these issues are resolved the RRS will move to implement a full
    field development of the field, with potential for +20 horizontal wells to be drilled into the
    shallow oil formation to target an estimated 5.4mmbbls of 3P volumes. Each horizontal
    well is expected to initially produce at a rate of around 1,000bopd with an EUR of
    0.22mmbbls and is expected to cost $1.6m per well on a dry hole basis. The well recovery
    assumptions appear conservative given that vertical wells in adjacent projects have
    reportedly averaged 0.2mmbbls and a horizontal well should provide 3-4 x these volumes.
    Project Economics
    While the 3P volumes are representative of a full field development at East Cotton Valley,
    based on reasonable well spacing and EUR assumptions, our current valuation is based on
    development of 2P estimates at this stage. In addition we have risked our 2P valuation at this stage at 50% until the water issues are resolved and production is demonstrated inline
    with our assumptions. Our valuation is based on the drilling of 10 horizontal wells with
    individual well EUR?s of ~0.3mmbbls, assuming that 2 wells are drilled in 2012 followed by
    4 wells in 2013 and 3 wells in 2013. However, following drilling and successful production
    from 1-2 further wells it is likely that the JV could accelerate drilling to 6 wells per year to
    drill the 20+ 3P locations. We have assumed completed well costs of $2.8m and allowed for
    operating expenses of US$10k/well/month plus production taxes. Royalties are believed to
    be in the order of 30%.
 
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