Jason, I'm not mocking them on my financial skills but rather on JPM's who make Patto's look like naughty little schoolboys who really didn't pay much attention in class. If you want to be pedantic show me the accounting standard that values plant & equipment on the same line as 25yrs of ore sitting underground? Does "Mt Weld" include Duncan BTW, as obviously Patto's have managed to do achieve something beyond NC's skills and relocate Crown elsewhere. Although strangely, when I look at the map it's still "at" "Mt Weld" although Patto's feel it deserves another line while the #@^*!@ LAMP & Duncan don't???? Get real and shove your arogant little lecture on "Valuation methods used in Finance' where the sun don't shine.
Now, back to mocking Patto's. Firstly the weirdest one, and more evidence this report was prepared by the janitor, is their projection on Dy, THE most important RE that EVERYBODY agrees is going to be in short supply for at least the next decade and Patto's reckon it's going to fall by 50% from $660 FY13 to $333 FY14, $340 FY15 and creep up to $347 FY16. In the meantime La is going to double current price next FY.
Hardly worth going thru the rest other than to say good ol' Patto's are punting a 50% higher realised basket thru the next two FY's.
However, the janitor was nowhere near as confident on production, maybe the ouija had a mal, punting for 10,602t FY 14. By comparison the rather conservative boys uptown at JPM picked 17,857t out of the hat. Guess no one at Patto's told the janitor about Stage 2.
Surprisingly revenues come out ballpark Pat's/JPM $432/465 FY14, $877/673 FY15 but alas JPM couldn't maintain the janitor's enthusiasm on NPAT $227/99 FY 14 & $578/216 FY 15.
Can't compare CoP as Patto's just do cash costs and JPM appear to be total x kg.
JPM do do a DCF val, Mt Weld AND LAMP 3313 less corporate (351), less debt (241) = Equity NPV of 2721 or $1.39.
Whatever, their both a lot higher than the current SP.
LYC Price at posting:
60.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
