There are some bits in your posts (re options) that border on...

There are some bits in your posts (re options) that border on making sense but not quite. For example, it is true that in the money option's market value will be at least the difference between the Share price and the conversion price. The market value of option is almost certainly higher than that, as you can see even with VMGO, and this difference will be higher for longer-dated options.

Now to your formula which is plainly incorrect.

QUOTE

SP - (offer price) + (n / (days until expiration)) = (option market value)

QUOTE END

In your formula, the "option market value" is inversely related to "days until expiration". In other words, the value of the option rises as the "days until expiration" decreases, and the market value of the option will reach infinity when "days until expiration" drops to zero. Good luck trading using these methods. May be you intended for the ratio to be the other way around - I don't know.

The other problem - there is no way of measuring of "n" = "optimism about share". On the other hand, "volatility" is measurable and can be used for option valuation.

I am sorry if I come across as too harsh - it is not intended - just pointing out facts.