• CCR made $8.6 mill in rev in the last quarter
• That equates to a tad under $35 mill if you annualise it - (ie x4)
• The last quarter is the worst quarter of the year - because Jan is very quiet
• the next quarter will be much bigger just because it = 3 busy months (rather than 2 busy and 1 quiet)
• therefore the next Q should yield at least $10 mill - which equates to $40mill annualised
• so CCR are already well on their way to $100 mill
• now add in the $7.7 mill lag from last year
• plus the big 4 bank win
• plus insurance
• plus the $3 mill won in last quarter
• and you get to $50 mill comfortably
• at this point CCR will have about 9% market share of collections in Australia
• total collections are estimated to be around $21 bill in Oz
• total revenue from collections in Oz is estimated to be around $1.5 bill
• (FYI there are some 675 collection agencies in Oz)
• so to get to $100 mill in revenue CCR need to effectively double what they have already achieved
• that means get to 18% market share of total collections
• and 7% of collections revenue
(bear in mind that many of the big collections agencies operate via debt purchasing - CCR does not do this - so different model)
How could they do that?
• become de facto product for insurance - already well on the way to this
• win other big 4 banks - certainly in with a decent chance
• continue to win $3 mill in new revenue each quarter from wider market ($12 mill pa)
• achieve digital export to UK? Asia? US? - Techub looks like its a dead end!
• tailwinds from stressed economy
• continued trend for clients to stop 'selling' debt to the likes of CCP
How long could this take?
3 years?
what would they be valued at if they accomplished this?
$1 billion MC? a Disallowed from here
Definitely possible! Food for thought!
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Pathway to $100 million revenue
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