LYC 1.59% $6.40 lynas rare earths limited

patience or foolish!, page-24

  1. 8,917 Posts.
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    Ben, accept your view but lets disect these 5 items..

    -customer acceptance - a given otherwise someone has been telling porkies. Minerals are minerals, pretty basic stuff.

    -first lot of payments - nice, but until profitable simply receiving $ from a customer has no upside.


    -phase 2 complete - close anyway, so a given. Without customers it's a white elephant.

    -full production ramp up - this would be a good sign based on NC stating that he would not ramp up without demand. May or may not be profitable as he may want to squeeze Moly.

    -regular cashflow $$$M - again if not profitable enough to cover COP and general overheads then this by itself does nothing. A good sign for sure, but not anything to use as rocket fuel.

    So, IMO non of these by themselves or even in combination are a certain bet to kick the SP up to the levels that some are expecting. Full production ramp up may be the one that does move the SP in a step change fashion, if you can take NCs word.

    We need to see substantial bottom line profits, or at least a good statistical chance of same to get the SP above $1.

    And of course once it gets to $1 to $1.20 then the additional 8.5 dilution can kick in from Mt Kel.

    Don't bet your house based on these 5 points.
 
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