NEU 5.50% $16.15 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

patient enrolment begins april 2010, page-8

  1. 1,517 Posts.
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    Hi Larger,
    The answer to your valuation question is readily available.

    Neuren have calculated, based upon a successful result from the phase II trial, a net present value in excess of $US250m with peak gross revenues of $US341m per annum within the first 10 year sales period (US sales only) - equates to an undiluted share price of 70c or a multiple of 20 times current share price.

    Alternatively, the directors could progress towards an end trade sale. I have already mentioned that Dr Doug Wilson is also the Chairman of Phylogica. The business model which has been adopted by Phylogica is the development of partnerships with big pharma with the ultimate objective of an end trade sale. In the case of Phylogica the directors are targeting a valuation in the ballpark of $US450m. If Neuren adopts a similar strategy, which is entirely plausible given the input of Dr Wilson, its valuation could be calculated on the basis of its earnings times an appropriate earnings multiple - pure speculation on my part but the net profit on $US341m times say a multiple of 10 would be a big number.

    I understand that traumatic brain injury (TBI) is by far the largest killer of people under 45 years of age - currently there are no drugs registered for treatment.
 
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