RDF 0.00% 95.8¢ redflex holdings limited

takeover?---anyone's guess.There has to be European and US...

  1. 688 Posts.
    takeover?---anyone's guess.

    There has to be European and US companies looking, particularly companies in the traffic management area such as companies manufacturing and installing traffic lights, even some of the big parking station operators.

    Within the photo enforcement area I had thought Nestor would have made a T/O bid as a desperation effort to get somewhere when RDF was sub $1, Nestor being listed in the US, even only on the OTCBB, is afforded a very high multiple, if RDF was on the same multiple our shareprice would be $5.5. to $6, and this multiple allows the Yanks to relatively cheaply acquire OS companies.
    ACS, which Redflex has just knocked out of top spot in the US is lacking modern digital technology, they really dropped the ball there and on the surface would look like a potential bidder. However the Traffic Management division is at the bottom of the ACS food chain, is badly managed, and I don't really think they are a serious threat.

    One other point which would be fairly obvious to any potential bidder is that a pretty large proportion of RDF shares are tied up in the hands of long term shareholders, even when the shareprice was under $1 my guess even then was that a bid of at least $3 would have been needed to even shake the tree.
    Now the SP is nudging $2 then probably $4 to $5 would be required.
    Still even at those prices it would be very attractive to a company listed on the US markets because the Traffic Division itself if listed on Nasdaq would instantly command much higher multiples than it does now in Australia.

    One other point is that a hostile bidder would have to go for RDF which of course includes G Davie and the Comms Division. Enough to put anyone off, guess you could say it is a natural takeover defence.

    More than a takeover I have always been concerned at a possible strike at the top management of the Traffic division, there seems to be a view among the donkey element among the RDF heirachy in Melbourne that almost anyone could have done the job that Bruce Higgins and team have done in the US, how wrong they are. Higgins and his team are second to none, almost impossible to replicate no matter what cash was offerred.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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