Pauley's comment slipped through with little comment. He's pretty specific.
'We know it's a technical correction from a 5 wave up. C is already lower and the 1.382 stands at 4337. A buy signal would be gap down at the open with strong finish amongst a cluster of similar bars. Pretty much the opposite of what we are seeing ATM.' PAULEY - June 21
We've had two morning rallys and a fade on the XJO. Today, I sold in the fade and missed that arvo rally.
The big parcels of BHP & RIO went
Plan A - Buy back in either a low in July - as a few posters are hypertheticalizing.
PLAN B - BUY in on a backtest of support if we follow the upswing in the DOW.
The exercise has cost 39k so far + interest on a long, slow downtrend.
The spanner in the works for Plan A is:
'It seems to me that the market is begging for a run up. The smart money could really clean up by pushing up out of this downtrend and let the market go silly with buying.' TOLL =June 21
Counterbalanced by...
'I think 3rd july could be the date to look for when the Greece debacle is finally decided, and lets face it they aren't going to let them slip into the chasm just yet. The big boys haven't managed to offload en masse yet' FUNKYMONK - June 21
And further confused by...
'The chart has had three days up and close to a short term horizontal resistance area at 12120. It needs to close above that area to confirm an up trend. Three days up in a bear market is often as much as a retrace can manage.' REDBACKER - June 21.
We did get 4 updays to the top of the downtrend channel in late May on the DOW. Last night was 12180 at time of writing - at the top of the trend channel - and the fourth day up! A repeat of Late May. If it is - it would be a big down night tomorrow.
THE BIG BOYS
Can someone enlighten me please.. We hear about the 'Big Boy's. The Big Boys are letting it drop, the Big Boys are are driving the banks down. Now I know there are plenty of individual 'Big Boys'. But do they really have some sort of 'Big Boy tweet channel' where they are so united; so in sync; so premeditated, they can drive whole markets through tricky bear and bull traps as well as prolonged down channels as we have just seen. Are there really 'meanies' who deliberately suck us in and spit us out?
Is there some sort of Fund Manager - 'Star Chamber'. I'm not interested in conspiracy nonsense...just if it really can work that way.
Because with all our god given intelligence, hundreds of hours of research. We still find it hard to improve our chances of profit by more than a 50/50 thow of the dice.
Someone said 'the market conspires against you'. Early this year, I watched Oscar predict the next day for about 15 days - all the way through a pennant. He said if it gets 75% of the length of the pennant and dived out the bottom, it would reverse and go straight out through the top. It was a magic show as it followed his repeat pattern recognition day after day
Presumably someone presses the button 75% of the way through pennants.
Sorry- I am just suffering post selling depression.
Without further ado - my decimated Portfolio.
My Crappy Portfolio - end of trade Tuesday 21st June
(20min delay)