What I'm expecting from PBH in 2021 is:
- Minimum of at least A$190.25m in revenue 2021 FY (153% increase from 20FY)
- Legislation and expansion of the top 3 biggest population states in the US (New York, Texas and California) 2021/2022 FY
- Expansion into the Canadian market in 2022 FY
As you can see in Q4-FY20 (Apr, May, Jun) and Q1-FY2021 (July, Aug, Sep), Covid 19 virtually stopped all global sports, which impacted online betting with only A$4.6m (13.73% increase) in net revenue growth. All sporting league came back at some sort of capacity at different stages in September.
Q3 FY20 to Q4 FY20, PBH had a growth rate of 78.19% for that quarter. It highlights that in terms of growth these company has potential and that's why Q2-2021 report will set the tone for the rest of the year in terms of growth and stock price. My chart indicates that we will see the stock price go to that $16-24 range. Also helps with the start of the NBA season now under way.
Net Revenue Per Quarter in Black Box*
The following are my conservative estimates in how I calculated my A$190.25m in revenue growth. I added 15% of compound revenue growth per quarter. The estimated net revenues are highlighted in bold. Remember if the growth is higher, then the FY21 revenue total will also be higher.
Q1 FY21 ($38.1) - $38.1 + $5.72 (15%) = $43.82
Q2 FY21 ($43.82) - $43.82 + $6.57 (15%) = $50.39
Q3 FY21 ($50.39) - $50.39 + $7.55 (15%) = $57.94
Q4 FY21 ($57.94)
21FY Revenue Total
$38.1 + $43.82 + $50.39 + $57.94 = $190.25 (153% increase from 20FY)
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