G’day gents, Please find my concise summary of information flow...

  1. 323 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 337
    G’day gents,

    Please find my concise summary of information flow and events surrounding the successful PCD. If you disagree with this assessment, please cite your evidence with links for discussion. But I think sufficient objective information, with links to all sources should confirm that the PCD was:
    -successful
    -target flow rates acheived
    -continued gasification occurred
    -Operations phase lasted a sufficient duration to meet EIR requirements and prove ISG commercial viability
    -BOD communication was accurate and transparent

    PCD news flow timeline to investors.
    11 oct 18 - ASX announcement reported production of first syngas, Announcement of target volume of 1m cubic ft/day syngas production and objective criteria BOD will access PCD success against

    17 oct - QAR - reported that a deliberately slow ramp up period would be used, that cooling and safety equipment calibration would also occur during ramp up.

    05 Nov 18 - letter, LCK to Michael melavasoz. Requesting 4 week suspension and recommencent of 90 day period. Due to Requirement for “re-ignition” (note use of brackets from PS to provide quasi-simplification of the stimulation process during ramp up operations in UCG which are thoroughly detailed in the EIR of April 2018)

    15 NPV 18 - asx announcement updating the shareholders of 35 days continuous operations and that an additional fuel source to accelerate underground burn would be used to expedite heat up period to reach desired gasification effect.

    04 dec 18 - asx announcement, 53 consecutive days of gasification acheived. gasification now in pyrolysis phase, UCG temps between 300-800c, target temperature >800c.

    08 jan 19 - asx announcement, 89 days continuous gasification, 13 days of commercial syngas with 20% methane being produced, flow rates currently low, LCK seeking to now enhance flow rates to confirm feasibility of commercial extraction viability.

    21 jan 19 - asx announcement, operations update. LCK substantially increased flow rates, now achieving over 1,000cubic metres/h, while maintaining commercial quality syngas inline with forecast syngas composition previously announced.

    01 feb 2019 - letter from LCK to Michael melavasoz. request additional 90 days to meet the requirement of approximately 60-90 days of syngas production as outlined in EIR.

    06 feb 19 - approval letter - Michael melavasoz / LCK extension granted.19 feb 2019 - asx announcement, Pre commercial demonstration success. Peak flow of 8913 cubic metre/h achieved. Target PCD objectives acheived.

    Additional references:
    EIR of apr 2018, Para 3.8 of page 37 -“Operations. (Phase) Once commissioning is completed and gasification has commenced, the demonstration plant will be operated continuously for a period of approximately 2-3 months. It will be staffed on a 24-hour per day basis.”

    Key points:
    -the OCD was operated continuously for a 131 day period (10 oct 18- 19 feb 19)
    -The UCG flame never “went out”, additional fuel was used to accelerate the process of commissioning phase to achieve pyrolysis.
    -It was producing commercial quality syngas for 55 days (26 dec - 19 feb 19)
    -Once commissioning was completed, and operations phase began, ramp up successfully increased from <1000cubic m/h to >8900, a flow rate 7x greater than targeted during EIR/PCD target rates.
    -Syngas composition was inline with that outlined in EIR table 3-5 page 40.
    -At no point does it say, anywhere, in any documentation that I am aware of, that they are required to sustain commercial flow rates for the entire duration of the operations phase. To achieve PCD success. It says they may reach up to (and they quote 18,000cubic m in the letter) a target rate during continuous gasification
    -The operations in the context which IW previously cited it (letter LCK/Michael) is referring to the phase, not the activity of operating something. Which once gasification temperatures in pyrolysis increase sufficiently for the UCG reaction to occur, syngas is created. This occurred around 26 December and continued for 55 days (what I would say falls within “approximately 2-3 months” EIR para 3.8) until LCK announced PCD success on 19 feb 19
    -LCK requested the additional 90 days from Michael likely as a buffer period to ensure target rates would be acheived, I assess, they would have been uncertain of continued rate of PCD flow rate increase.

    I am comfortable the NRZ/LCK management provided an accurate and transparent update to the market during the PCD and don’t believe there remains any doubt over PCD success, or commercial viability.

    this was done from my phone while travelling, so excuse the poor formatting.

    References:
    All ASX announcements can be located here: https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.nrz

    The EIR can be located here:
    https://sarigbasis.pir.sa.gov.au/WebtopEw/ws/samref/sarig1/image/DDD/PGER00091EIR%20ISG%20PILOT.pdf

    letters between LCK/Michael melavasoz can be located here:
    https://www.petroleum.sa.gov.au/search?query=LCK+
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.