It is amazing at times just how much useful information is available outside paywalls on the internet, with some diligent surfing.
Following some social media links, we learn from the well-regarded folk at
Platts that the headline price for top tier Australian low volatile matter PCI coals, like Baralaba is:
US$92.50/mt FOB ( that is, loaded aboard a ship here ).
That is US$6.50/mt FOB down from the Jan-Mar quarterly price. That follows a significant reduction in the coking coal price, that PCI generally moves in step with.
In terms of the impact on COK - there are a number of variables that cloud the picture. Let us just say, even with the weakening of the AUD:USD exchange rate, at best it probably represents a couple of dollars lower return on each tonne sold.
Depending on things like the sales mix ( prime customers versus spot or second tier customers; exchange rate hedging; movements in operational and corporate costs ) the revenue impact could be worse.
And the outlook ? Platts are not seeing a lot of joy:
"
The transactions came just at a time of sharp falls in spot prices, with both low-vol and mid-vol PCI having lost about $4/mt since the start of March, Platts data shows."
Australia is still at the tail end of ramping up minerals production committed during the boom, including the Baralaba ramp up. Conversely the huge driver in the demand spike has been China, and things seem a little less buoyant there than they were assumed to be previously. It might be a while until a 'new normal' settles.
