PCK's Moat / Competitive Advantage

Many value investors are interested in a stocks "moat" or durable competitive advantage. As Phil Town suggests 5 moats are as follows, with respect to PCK;

https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/how-to-invest-moat-a-durable-advantage/

1/ Brand Moat - PCK has established itself as the gold standard of pain management. Pain assessments have historically been conducted via the Abbey Pain Scale, which was created by Dr Jennifer Abbey. On 4/6/2018 Dr Jennifer Abbey joined PCK to asist with the development of their tech.

2/ Secrets Moat - Patents, tech development. PCK has the first mover advantage in this space. They have patents in Australia, Japan and the US. Their tech that assesses faces digitally has taken years to develop and would take similar to replicate.

3/ Toll Bridge Moat - PCK are essentially sponsored by the Australian government. There is also a Royal Commission into aged care underway - via the Aus Government. Hmm I wonder if they think PCK could solve some of the problems within the industry? Now, if PCK only ever captures the Aus market I would suspect the price will be approx $0.35 on a PE20 basis (calcs in pic). The SP figure if PCK Enterprise / DTC dementia becomes successfully globally becomes silly, and then there is the children's product to consider.

4/ Switching Moat - PCK requires some integration, previously the Abbey Pain scale was essentially input into systems manually (if at all), PCK is automated, ie/ someone does an assessment and once PCK has been integrated the recording of the assessment is saved in the system. For a company to use Painchek, and revert to paper / no records would be a questionable move from a quality / compliance perspective. Ie/ Why not use Painchek once integrated?

5/ Price Moat - PCK currently estimates an 85% margin, therefore, if competition happens to arise, they could easily adjust prices to have a moat here as required.

Given the ridiculous target markets and minimal competition in the space, it's easy to get carried away with what is a reasonable price to pay right now. I think anywhere between $0.126 and $0.25 are reasonable if you are looking long for a 15% return YOY, naturally want to be in at the lower end. But, you might get in at $0.17 and next minute PCK have a left field announcement with Philips (has not been considered in my calcs). Calcs in link below (as of 4/8/2020). My target between now and 1/7/2021 is $0.22, with strong potential upside. I am sure many of the excellent PCK contributors could add to this - one of the best forums on HC .

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-RfT2izeKSqHLt9jYotj0_nt_mAQt8ZYEf59lkUyojE/edit#gid=1122485668