Without getting too political, in my view, I'd temper that 80c estimate down significantly, given that the Australia mining sector faces many headwinds & significant risks including:
- a successful referendum to for the establishment of the Voice, & all that follows including the likelihood of a treaty & a great deal of uncertainty.
- escalating inflation & subsequent rate rises.
- a government that has a history of "pulling a rabbit out of the hat" for a quick ill conceived money grab in the form of a mining tax.
- a government obsessed with achieving net zero by 2050, and all that it entails, including increased energy costs, possible limited access to finance unless criteria are met etc.
I note that in Geoenthusiast's recent post that he included what appears to be an extract from an analyst's report that stated "...PDI have a 15% dilution to Guinea govt & a further 30% discount to equivalent Australian based producers for jurisdictional risk". I'd be interested to know the metric that they used to calculate the 30% discount.
Of course Australia does not have the contextual risks that Guinea has, but it's certainly not sovereign risk free & facing additional challenges for the sector. I am more than comfortable & in many ways sleep better at night with significant investment in companies operating outside of Australia.
PDI Chart and T/A, page-901
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