Lets plot out a U cycle recovery estimate and what implications that has for Aura:
Estimated timeframes:
U Spot $35 plus 4Q 2019 - 2Q 2020 - Tiris given the funding go ahead = 3c sp
U Spot $45 plus 4Q 2020 - 2Q 2021 - Tiris moves into production with an annualised cashflow run rate of US$20m = 6c sp
U Spot $60 plus 4Q 2021 - 2Q 2022 - Tiris doubles capacity, cashflow run rate US$60m = 12c sp
U Spot $70 4Q 2022 - 2Q 2023 Tiris moves to 3mil pounds of capacity, cashflow run rate US$100m = 18c sp
Catalysts:
a) Sustained rise in the U Spot - 50% probability commences 2H 2019; 75% prob 2H 2020
b) Funding confirmation subject to U spot movement - 65% probability 4Q 2019; 75% prob 1H 2020
Lets plot out a U cycle recovery estimate and what implications...
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